702
FXUS01 KWBC 231937
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
336 PM EDT SUN MAR 23 2025
VALID 00Z MON MAR 24 2025 - 00Z WED MAR 26 2025
...SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES TODAY AS SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT EMERGE ACROSS
THE MID-SOUTH...
...MORE WET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
MONDAY BEFORE A DRYING TREND SETS IN...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WARM TO HOT EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPAND OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. THIS WEEK WITH NUMEROUS
RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY...
A LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, INCLUDING SEVERE AND WINTER WEATHER, TO THE EASTERN U.S.
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD A SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
AND THE ARKLATEX WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING
SHEAR AND SUFFICIENT CAPE WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE POTENT
THUNDERSTORMS, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
BEGIN TO REPEAT OVER THE SAME AREAS AS STORM MOTIONS BECOME MORE
PARALLEL TO THE SLOWING COLD FRONT. STORM CHANCES WILL SHIFT
TOWARDS THE ATLANTIC AND GULF COASTS MONDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES
FURTHER SOUTHWARD, THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE LIMITED. TO THE NORTH, A BAND OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE ALONG AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES.
WINTER WEATHER-RELATED WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FROM
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN AS SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF 3-6", LOCALLY 8", WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. RAIN CHANCES WILL SPREAD EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
LATE SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND, WITH A WINTRY MIX FOR THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES, APPALACHIANS, AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST. SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, PARTICULARLY IN MAINE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER
OFF BY MONDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING LONGEST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, A PLUME OF PLENTIFUL MOISTURE/ATMOSPHERIC RIVER
ACCOMPANYING A STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
CONTINUE TO LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAIN ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE
OLYMPIC MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES IN WASHINGTON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) REMAINS
IN EFFECT AS SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL ON TOP OF ALREADY
SATURATED SOILS COULD LEAD TO SEVERAL INSTANCES OF FLOODING.
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN CASCADES AND INLAND THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A LIGHTER MIX OF RAIN SHOWERS (ALONG THE
COAST) AND RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS (INLAND) CAN BE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/NORTHERN GREAT BASIN. THE HEAVY
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND
INTO THE DAY MONDAY AS THE FLOW OF MOISTURE SUBSIDES, THOUGH SOME
LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER AS
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS DRAPED THROUGH THE REGION. ELSEWHERE, A
CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE MONDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY AS IT QUICKLY DROPS
THROUGH THE REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (LEVEL 1/3) ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN DRY, WARM, AND BREEZY. A MUCH MORE ISOLATED THREAT WILL
PERSIST INTO MONDAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA.
AN UPCOMING WEATHER STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT
OF WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, WARM TO HOT EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES
EXPANDING IN COVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. AS AN
UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS IN A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN. FORECAST HIGHS
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 50S AND 60S IN THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/PLAINS; THE 60S AND 70S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/COASTAL
CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS; AND
THE 80S TO LOW 90S FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL SEE THE
HOTTEST TEMPERATURES, WITH HIGHS INTO THE MID- TO UPPER 90S.
NUMEROUS RECORD-TYING/BREAKING HIGHS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TEXAS
WEST THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
COAST BY TUESDAY. THESE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS LOOK TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK, GENERALLY SHIFTING MORE EASTWARD WITH
TIME FROM THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL U.S. WHILE NOT QUITE AS ABNORMAL,
HIGHS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL STILL BE MILD TO WARM AND ABOVE
AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST, SOUTHEAST, AND MID-ATLANTIC.
COLDER, BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES THROUGH, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 30S AND 40S.
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