983
FXUS06 KWBC 251904
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE MARCH 25 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 04, 2025
THE GEFS, ECENS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, BUT THE GEFS DEPICTS STRONGER RIDGING OVER THE
SOUTHERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) THAN THE OTHER TWO ENSEMBLES, DECREASING
FORECAST CONFIDENCE PARTICULARLY FOR THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WHERE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER THE MOST. TODAY’S 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND HEIGHT FORECAST DEPICTS
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA, TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES
OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN
PLAINS, AND WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES FOR THE REST OF THE CONUS, WITH THE
LARGEST HEIGHT DEPARTURES (+60M) OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH
PREDICTED WEAK TO MODERATE ANOMALOUS RIDGING. PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 60% OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY
MOST FORECAST TOOLS, AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MICHIGAN AND NEW
ENGLAND. FOR ALASKA, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS
AND NORTH SLOPE, IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG BERING SEA RIDGE. IN CONTRAST, BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED BASED
ON A CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND THE AUTOBLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD. IN THE WEST, THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. FORECAST TOOLS BROADLY INDICATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WEST COAST, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH >50% PROBABILITIES FROM
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WESTWARD, WITH >70% CHANCES INDICATED FOR A SMALL PORTION
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, INCREASING GULF
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CONUS, PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. (>50% PROBABILITY) WITH
A SURFACE LOW EXITING THE REGION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. A WEAK TILT
TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO,
SOUTHERN TEXAS, LIKELY TOO FAR REMOVED FROM LARGE-SCALE STORM TRACKS. IN
ALASKA, MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL
BUT SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, ALEUTIANS, AND
PANHANDLE REGION WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. IN
HAWAII, ODDS GO FROM A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS TO A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE BIG ISLAND, BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND THE AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5. FAIR
AGREEMENT AMONG MODELS WITH REGARD TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE IS OFFSET BY A
LARGE SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS WITH PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 08 2025
LIKE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT REGARDING
THE WEEK-2 MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN, BUT THE GEFS CONTINUES TO FAVOR STRONGER
RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN CONUS, RESULTING IN GREATER SPREAD AMONG FORECAST
TOOLS AND DECREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE SYNOPTIC PICTURE FOR NORTH AMERICA
DURING WEEK-2 AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES IS LITTLE
CHANGED FROM THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGES BEING A
DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE FOR BOTH THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA AND THE TROUGH
OVER THE WEST COAST.
WITH A PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED ONLY FOR MAINE. PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO
EXCEED 60% FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
CONUS UNDER CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ALASKA, A WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE
OVER THE BERING SEA ALLOWS FOR INCREASED EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW, TILTING THE
ODDS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR MOST OF THE STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, WHERE THE LINGERING RIDGE FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. WITH CONTINUED POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE REGION HAWAII
CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY FAVORED FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WITH A PERSISTENCE OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY WEAKER ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST
COAST, WHILE A LARGE AREA OF NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS DUE TO CONTRADICTORY GUIDANCE FROM FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST UNDER
CONTINUED POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN ALASKA, THE MAJORITY OF OBJECTIVE
GUIDANCE FAVORS A SIMILAR PRECIPITATION PATTERN TO THAT OF THE EARLIER 6-10 DAY
PERIOD, WITH FAVORED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINLAND, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND,
THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS, AND PARTS OF THE PANHANDLE REGION. IN
HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR ALL OF THE ISLANDS EXCEPT THE
BIG ISLAND WHERE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED, BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION
OF TOOLS AND THE AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS, ESPECIALLY FOR
ALASKA.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590402 - 19850406 - 19590317 - 19720305 - 19890402
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19590404 - 19850403 - 19720305 - 19600403 - 19890402
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAR 31 - APR 04, 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN A B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 02 - 08 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF A A IDAHO N A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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