681
FOUS11 KWBC 252042
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
442 PM EDT TUE MAR 25 2025
VALID 00Z WED MAR 26 2025 - 00Z SAT MAR 29 2025
..EASTERN GREAT LAKES/NORTHEAST
DAY 1...
AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN MI THIS AFTERNOON SHIFTS EAST OVER NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. LOW LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING
BEFORE VEERING NORTHERLY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. PVA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LOW CENTER WILL AID LIFT ON THIS FAVORED FLOW ACROSS LAKES
ERIE AND ONTARIO AND HELP PRODUCE LAKE ENHANCED SNOW AND UPSLOPE
SNOW ON NEW ENGLAND MOUNTAIN RANGES. DAY 1.5 SNOW PROBS FOR >4"
ARE GENERALLY 30-50% FOR THE TUG HILL, GREENS, WHITES, AND
NORTHWESTERN MAINE.
..UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
DAY 3...
A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS AND LEE-
SIDE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS CENTERED OVER SOUTH DAKOTA THURSDAY
NIGHT ALLOWS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION PRECIP TO FORM
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE ND/MN BORDER EARLY FRIDAY AND POSSIBLY BLOSSOM
TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR LATER FRIDAY. ANTECEDENT COLD AIR AND A WARM
NOSE LOOK TO BRING A (MOST LIKELY LIGHT) WINTRY MIX TO NORTHERN
ND/MN/WI AND THE U.P. DAY 3 ICE PROBS FOR >0.1" ARE 20-50% CENTERED
AROUND DULUTH AND UP THE NORTH SHORE.
..CASCADES INTO THE NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA
DAYS 2-3...
AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP, COLD CORE LOW APPROACHES THE OR COAST
WEDNESDAY EVENING BEFORE OCCLUDING IN PLACE OFF WA THROUGH FRIDAY.
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE WEST NOW MEANS HIGH SNOW LEVELS AT ONSET
(>8000FT) WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT WILL QUICKLY DROP TO AROUND
4500FT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THESE LOWER SNOW LEVELS ARE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES THE COAST, THEN DROPS
EVEN FURTHER, TO AROUND 4000FT THURSDAY EVENING AS PRECIP RATES
INCREASE AGAIN WITH SOME HEAVY RATES LIKELY. DAY 2 SNOW PROBS FOR
>8" ARE 30-60% FOR THE HIGHEST KLAMATH AND OR/WA CASCADES ONLY.
HOWEVER, THE LOWER SNOW LEVELS AND INCREASED PRECIP RATES MAKE DAY
3 SNOW PROBS FOR >8" MORE EXPANSIVE WITH 40-90% PROBS FROM THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA, KLAMATH, AND ALONG THE SPINE OF THE OR
CASCADES AND WA CASCADES.
JACKSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page