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FXUS06 KWBC 261901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED MARCH 26 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 05 2025
THE ECENS AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT TODAY OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH REGARD TO THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, BUT THE GEFS DEPICTS MUCH WEAKER RIDGING OVER THE
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC THAN THE OTHER TWO ENSEMBLES, DECREASING FORECAST
CONFIDENCE PARTICULARLY FOR THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK WHERE MODEL SOLUTIONS
DIFFER THE MOST. TODAY’S 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND HEIGHT FORECAST DEPICTS STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE BERING SEA, TROUGHING AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND EXTENDING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND NORTHERN PLAINS, AND
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, WITH THE LARGEST HEIGHT
DEPARTURES (+120M) OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH PREDICTED MODERATE ANOMALOUS RIDGING. PROBABILITIES
FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 70% OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER, WITH
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES (>50%) FOR PORTIONS OF OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW AND ENHANCED PRECIPITATION DEPICTED BY MOST
FORECAST TOOLS, AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND. FOR ALASKA, NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE ALEUTIANS, THE WESTERN MAINLAND, AND NORTH
SLOPE, IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONG BERING SEA RIDGE. IN CONTRAST, BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA DUE TO PREDICTED EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW. IN HAWAII, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE STRONGLY FAVORED BASED
ON A CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND THE AUTOBLEND.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS DURING THE 6-10
DAY OUTLOOK PERIOD. IN THE WEST, THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO MID-LEVEL TROUGHING AND
ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. FORECAST TOOLS BROADLY INDICATE ONSHORE FLOW WITH
ENHANCED MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE WEST COAST, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH >50% PROBABILITIES FROM GREAT
BASIN WESTWARD, WITH >60% CHANCES INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE, INCREASING GULF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE RETURN FLOW AROUND A SURFACE ANTICYCLONE PREDICTED OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AND A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY FAVORS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS, PARTICULARLY
FOR PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY (>50% PROBABILITY) WITH A SURFACE LOW
TRANSITING THE REGION DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR SOUTHERN TEXAS, LIKELY TOO FAR REMOVED FROM
LARGE-SCALE STORM TRACK. IN ALASKA, MOST PRECIPITATION TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ACROSS ALL BUT SOUTHERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE MAINLAND, THE ALASKA
PENINSULA, ALEUTIANS, AND PANHANDLE REGION WHERE NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED. IN HAWAII, ODDS GO FROM A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHWESTERN ISLANDS TO NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE BIG ISLAND, BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION OF TOOLS AND THE AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5. LARGE
SPREAD AMONG MODELS WITH REGARD TO OVERALL SYNOPTIC PICTURE AS WELL AS THE
PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF INDIVIDUAL FEATURES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 09 2025
LIKE IN THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT REGARDING THE WEEK-2 MEAN CIRCULATION PATTERN, BUT THE GEFS CONTINUES
TO DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH REGARD TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, RESULTING IN
GREATER SPREAD AMONG FORECAST TOOLS AND DECREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THE
SYNOPTIC PICTURE FOR NORTH AMERICA DURING WEEK-2 AS DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF,
GEFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLES IS SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH THE MOST
NOTABLE CHANGES BEING A DECREASE IN AMPLITUDE FOR BOTH THE RIDGE OVER THE
BERING SEA AND THE TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST, AS WELL AS A STRENGTHENING OF
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
WITH A PERSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA, THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE
OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES AS RIDGING OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC INTENSIFIES, WITH NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INDICATED ONLY
FOR MAINE. PROBABILITIES CONTINUE TO EXCEED 60% FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS OVER
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS UNDER CONTINUED MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. IN ALASKA, A
WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA ALLOWS FOR INCREASED EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW, TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR MOST OF THE
STATE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, WHERE THE LINGERING RIDGE
FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. WITH CONTINUED POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES IN THE
REGION HAWAII CONTINUES TO BE STRONGLY FAVORED FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
WITH A PERSISTENCE OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, THE
PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS ALSO VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. WITH
INCREASING SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION OVER THE CONUS ARE GENERALLY WEAKER, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST
COAST. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST
UNDER STRENGTHENING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES. IN ALASKA, AS RIDGING OVER THE
BERING SEA WEAKENS, INCREASED AVAILABLE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TILTS
THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
MAINLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA, AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
THE SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND, THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND ALEUTIANS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR ALL OF HAWAII, BASED ON A CONSOLIDATION
OF TOOLS AND THE AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
FAIR OVERALL AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL HEIGHT FORECASTS OFFSET BY SIGNIFICANT
UNCERTAINTY IN THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION FIELDS, ESPECIALLY FOR
ALASKA.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19850406 - 19720307 - 19770405 - 20030328 - 19890404
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19890404 - 20030327 - 19850408 - 19720306 - 19590405
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 01 - 05 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA B A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA B A IOWA N A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE B A
MASS B A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B B AK PNHDL B B
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 09 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B A NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B A NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA N A COLORADO N A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A N NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT B N AK SO COAST B N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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