674
FXUS01 KWBC 262002
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
401 PM EDT WED MAR 26 2025
VALID 00Z THU MAR 27 2025 - 00Z SAT MAR 29 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN
TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN TEXAS ON THURSDAY...
...LIGHT SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY INTO
FRIDAY; LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEAST WILL TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. ON WEDNESDAY
EVENING, A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY
MORNING, PRODUCING MORE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST.
IN THE MEANTIME, ANOTHER FRONT OVER THE WEST COAST ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND THEN MOVES TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TO THE SOUTHWEST
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES. THERE IS AN ADDED THREAT OF HAIL, TWO INCHES OR
GREATER OVER THE REGION.
FURTHERMORE, WEDNESDAY EVENING, RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND BY THURSDAY MORNING, AFTER THE FRONT
PASSES, SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER OVER THE NORTHWEST AND CALIFORNIA.
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THE STORM WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND SNOW AT
THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OVER THE CASCADES, NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, AND
THE SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS.
MEANWHILE, ON THURSDAY, A THIRD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHEAST
TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL LINGER OVER/NEAR THE WESTERN GULF
COAST. MOISTURE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF AMERICA WILL STREAM NORTHWARD
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY. MOREOVER, ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER TEXAS. THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL
LOW WILL PULL MOVE MOISTURE OFF THE GULF OF AMERICA, PRODUCING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MANY STREAMS
MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER RIVERS.
THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WESTERN GULF
COAST ON THURSDAY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK
(LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF
COAST FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING
EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING
LARGER RIVERS.
IN ADDITION, THE STORM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE WESTERN GULF COAST THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A
FEW TORNADOES.
BY FRIDAY MORNING, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DECREASES
SLIGHTLY TO A SLIGHT RISK FOR FRIDAY. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
THREAT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WITH A SLIGHT RISK ON
FRIDAY.
FURTHERMORE, ON WEDNESDAY EVENING, A FOURTH FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WITH A WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THAT WILL SLOWLY
STRENGTHEN AND MOVE TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LOW THEN MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, THE SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALSO, ON FRIDAY, LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ALONG
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD. ALONG THE RAIN/SNOW
LINE, FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THE HEAVIEST FREEZING RAIN WILL BE
OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA WITH 0.10 INCHES OF ICE.
ZIEGENFELDER
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