185
FXUS01 KWBC 280839
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
438 AM EDT FRI MAR 28 2025
VALID 12Z FRI MAR 28 2025 - 12Z SUN MAR 30 2025
...HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE WESTERN
GULF COAST AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY...
...A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER INCLUDING SNOW AND POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND...
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, POSSIBLY SEVERE, EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS SATURDAY...
RENEWED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY
AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. WHILE STORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER COMPARED TO
THURSDAY, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN
EFFECT AS PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE WILL STILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING.
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST ON SATURDAY, BUT THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING SHOULD REMAIN
MORE ISOLATED.
MEANWHILE, AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST,
PLAINS, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN (POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SNOW) AS WELL AS HIGHER
ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA EAST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES FRIDAY,
SHIFTING FOCUS INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY. LITTLE
TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS, BUT
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN
RANGES. FURTHER EAST, AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL HELP TO
STRENGTHEN/ORGANIZE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES BY EARLY SATURDAY. MOIST SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW WILL LEAD TO AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, FIRST NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT. INCREASING
SHEAR AS WELL AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY MAY
LEAD TO SOME MORE POTENT, INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED THE REGION WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. A
MORE WIDESPREAD, SIGNIFICANT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND STRONG TORNADOES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SUNDAY.
TO THE NORTH, A COUPLE ROUNDS OF WINTER WEATHER ARE EXPECTED IN
THE COLDER AIRMASS NORTH OF A WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. AN INITIAL
SHORTWAVE PASSING WEST TO EAST ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW, SLEET,
AND FREEZING RAIN ON FRIDAY. SNOW IS MOST LIKELY FOR LOCATIONS
CLOSE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER AND INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN, WITH ICE
EXPECTED JUST TO THE SOUTH FROM NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN. WHILE
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 0.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE UP OF MICHIGAN. THE WAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY EASTWARD
OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED ALONG THE CANADIAN
BORDER FROM UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND/MAINE. A
SWATH OF FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH FROM UPSTATE NEW
YORK INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND WITH MORE POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS GREATER THAN 0.25" POSSIBLE. ALSO ON SATURDAY, THE
UPPER-LEVEL WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SOUTH WILL
LEAD TO A SWATH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
DISRUPTIVE ACCUMULATING ICE FROM FREEZING RAIN. THE SNOWFALL IS
CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY FROM WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA NORTHEAST THROUGH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UP OF
MICHIGAN, WITH ICE MOST LIKELY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SNOW BAND
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN, THE UP OF
MICHIGAN, AND THE NORTHERN LP OF MICHIGAN. MORE SIGNIFICANT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF GREATER THAN 0.25" WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WILL BE
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING. THE GREATEST ANOMALIES UPWARDS OF 30 TO 40
DEGREES WILL BE FOCUSED FORM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE UPPER MISSOURI/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON FRIDAY WHERE HIGHS INTO
THE MID- TO UPPER 80S MAY TIE/BREAK RECORDS FOR THE DAY. HOWEVER,
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT LIVED FOR THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AS A COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION
SATURDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MORE
BROADLY, HIGHS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL BE IN THE
60S AND 70S, WITH 70S AND 80S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO
THE SOUTHEAST. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COLDER AND IN THE
30S AND 40S. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND
AVERAGE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTERIOR
WEST, THE 60S IN CALIFORNIA, AND THE 70S AND 80S INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. THE WARM TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH DRY AND BREEZY
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS HAVE LED TO A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK (LEVEL 2/3) FROM
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER SATURDAY.
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