060
FXUS06 KWBC 281912
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI MARCH 28 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2025
TODAY'S NUMERICAL MODELS GENERALLY DEPICT A COMPLEX AND ACTIVE 500-HPA PATTERN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY. THE PERIOD BEGINS WITH A NEGATIVE PACIFIC NORTH
AMERICAN (PNA)- LIKE PATTERN WITH RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST AND IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ALEUTIANS AND TROUGHING OVER MUCH OF WESTERN NORTH AMERICA.
TRANSIENT WEAK RIDGING IS ALSO DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEANS OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. MEANWHILE, AN EASTWARD DISPLACED NEGATIVE NORTH
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) PATTERN IS DEPICTED WITH A RIDGE FORECAST NEAR
ICELAND AND A BAND OF NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES STRETCHING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTH ATLANTIC PREDICTED TO ITS SOUTH. THE PREDICTED EASTWARD DISPLACED
NEGATIVE NAO ADDS UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH MOST MODELS WEAKENING THIS RIDGE BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. COMPLICATING MATTERS FURTHER, THE
PERIOD BEGINS WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST AND MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING ITS EVOLUTION WITH TIME. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN DEPICTS A
SLOW MOVING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS WHILE THE GEFS AND CANADIAN
ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE, AND FORECAST A POSSIBLE PHASING OF THIS
TROUGH WITH A SEPARATE NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH NEAR THE GREAT LAKES BY THE END
OF THE PERIOD. ALASKA IS SIMILARLY COMPLEX AS THE GEFS FORECASTS MUCH STRONGER
TROUGHING ACROSS THE MAINLAND RELATIVE TO THE OTHER ENSEMBLE MEANS, WHICH
PREDICT TRANSIENT RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND
WEAKER TROUGHING OVERALL ACROSS THE STATE FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ACROSS HAWAII, WITH TROUGHING FORECAST TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF THE STATE AND INCREASED RIDGING CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA.
HOWEVER, THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK AS
TODAY’S MODEL SOLUTIONS DEPICT MUCH LESS TROUGHING ACROSS THE REGION. FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN
CONUS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WERE
REDUCED RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY, PORTENDING A POTENTIAL PATTERN SHIFT TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE
EASTERN SEABOARD WESTWARD TO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. HOWEVER, THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS AREA OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED AS ASSOCIATED RIDGING NEAR THE
EAST COAST WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES FARTHER EASTWARD. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII UNDERNEATH PREDICTED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND
ASSOCIATED WITH ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN
ADJACENT WATERS.
AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY ASSOCIATED WITH A
COMPLEX AND TRANSITIONAL PATTERN. ONE AREA OF FOCUS IS FOR THE WESTERN GULF
COAST REGION, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY NORTHEASTWARD TO PARTS OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY WHERE PREDICTED AMPLE ADVECTION OF GULF MOISTURE MAKES ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION LIKELY. THIS REGION IS PREDICTED TO BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
A SOUTHERN STREAM THROUGH TO THE WEST AND A RIDGE TO THE EAST, PROMOTING STRONG
SOUTHERLY ONSHORE FLOW. THE SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALSO INCREASES THE
LIKELIHOOD OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST, PARTICULARLY IN THE
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED TO THE
EAST, ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA CLOSE TO THE PREDICTED MEAN RIDGE
AXIS. FARTHER TO THE NORTH, A REDUCTION IN ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES IS INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS
RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASED RIDGING NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN ALASKA ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW
PREDICTED OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WHILE A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND DUE TO PREDICTED
OFFSHORE FLOW. A TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII
ASSOCIATED WITH ANOMALOUS TROUGHING TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE STATE AND
POTENTIAL INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL
SURROUNDING WATERS.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
A PREDICTED COMPLEX 500-HPA FLOW PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2025
THE MAIN HEADLINES FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE AND LARGER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
POTENTIAL TRANSITIONAL PATTERN. THE PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS (PARTICULARLY IN THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTION WHICH
PERSISTS WITH A STRONG CUTOFF LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST). REMNANT DOWNSTREAM
RIDGING IS FORECAST ALONG THE EAST COAST. A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER WESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA WHICH IS MOST PRONOUNCED IN THE GEFS SOLUTION. RIDGING IS
FORECAST OVER SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. AS TIME PROGRESSES, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN
CHANGE IS PREDICTED AS THE WESTERN TROUGH WEAKENS AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD,
RESULTING IN HEIGHT RISES IN ITS WAKE WEST OF THE ROCKIES. AS THIS TROUGH
PROGRESSES EASTWARD, COUPLED WITH POTENTIAL NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DEVELOPMENT
NEAR THE GREAT LAKES, THE RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN,
POTENTIALLY BECOMING RESTRICTED TO THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CONUS WITH TIME.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH, A TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF MAINLAND
ALASKA WELL INTO WEEK-2. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE IN ALMOST UNANIMOUS AGREEMENT THAT
THIS TROUGH WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FORECAST MOST
OF THE STATE TO BE UNDER ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS BY THE TIME WE GET TO THE
END OF THE PERIOD. GENERALLY NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MEAN HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST FOR HAWAII.
DUE TO THE COMPLEX TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED, PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE OR
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE VERY MODEST OVER THE VAST MAJORITY
OF THE COUNTRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FLORIDA AND HAWAII. A TILT TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A
TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE WEST PROGRESSES EASTWARD. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEST AS ANTICIPATED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE PERIOD TRANSITIONS TO A WARMER PATTERN BY THE MIDDLE
OF THE PERIOD. ON THE FLIP SIDE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
EAST-CENTRAL CONUS EASTWARD TO MUCH OF THE MID ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AS
ANOMALOUS WARMTH EARLY IS REPLACED BY A COOLER PATTERN AS TIME PROGRESSES. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INDICATED FOR NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PROGRESSES THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE
MIDDLE AND LATTER PORTIONS OF THE PERIOD. CONVERSELY, LINGERING RIDGING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST INCREASES CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM FLORIDA
NORTHWARD TO THE CAROLINAS AND WESTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF
ALASKA, DUE TO ANTICIPATED ANOMALOUS TROUGHING EARLY IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY UPSTREAM FOR MUCH OF THE ALEUTIANS DUE TO
PREDICTED RIDGING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII DUE IN LARGE
PART TO ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL SSTS ACROSS ADJACENT WATERS.
AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTRY DURING
WEEK-2. THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND MUCH OF THE
SOUTHEASTERN CONUS (WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA) AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE COUPLED WITH RIDGING OVER THE ATLANTIC PROMOTES
WIDESPREAD ONSHORE FLOW. MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ONSHORE FLOW
IS FORECAST TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED FOR THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN
GULF COAST AS GULF MOISTURE IS TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. CONVERSELY A DRYING TREND
IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST DUE TO ANTICIPATED HEIGHT RISES AS TIME
PROGRESSES. A REDUCTION IN ABOVE NORMAL PROBABILITIES RELATIVE TO YESTERDAY IS
ALSO INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS DUE TO ANTICIPATED MEAN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR EASTERN ALASKA NEAR
AND AHEAD OF A PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH OVER THE MAINLAND. CONVERSELY, NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR WESTERN ALASKA BEHIND THIS TROUGH. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH CALIBRATED SKILL WEIGHTED PRECIPITATION GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF
AND GEFS ENSEMBLES.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 35% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: MUCH BELOW AVERAGE, 1 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO A PREDICTED COMPLEX TRANSITIONAL PATTERN COUPLED WITH SIGNIFICANT RUN TO
RUN MODEL INCONSISTENCIES.
FORECASTER: SCOTT H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040320 - 19900410 - 20030330 - 19970311 - 19670318
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20040320 - 19670318 - 19970313 - 20030330 - 19900409
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 03 - 07 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON B N NRN CALIF B A
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO B N NEVADA B A
W MONTANA B N E MONTANA B N WYOMING B A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA N A KANSAS N A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS N A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA N N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE N A
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A B AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 05 - 11 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO N N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N N WYOMING B N
UTAH B N ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B N
NEBRASKA B A KANSAS B A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS N A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA B N IOWA N N MISSOURI N A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N A MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA N A OHIO N A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N A NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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