974
FXUS01 KWBC 290752
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
351 AM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VALID 12Z SAT MAR 29 2025 - 12Z MON MAR 31 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY LATE SATURDAY AND THROUGH THE LOWER TO
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY ON
SUNDAY...
...MIX OF WINTER WEATHER THREATS INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT, DAMAGING
ICING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AS WELL AS FOR UPSTATE NEW YORK AND CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY BEFORE MORE RAINS RETURN TO THIS
AREA SUNDAY...
...MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST WHILE BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES STRETCH ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
AN ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S. WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ACTIVE PERIOD OF SEVERE WEATHER, HEAVY RAIN,
AND WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND. THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES SATURDAY
MORNING WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDS EAST THROUGH THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
WHILE A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
PLAINS BEFORE CURVING BACK TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
ROCKIES. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG AND JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. A SEPARATE AREA OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE AHEAD OF A
LEADING UPPER WAVE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
AND CENTRAL GULF COAST. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
VICINITY OF THE GULF COAST, MAY LEAD TO SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THEN, INTO THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY, INCREASING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LEAD TO AN EXPANDING AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE MISSISSIPPI/OHIO VALLEYS.
INCREASING SHEAR AND INSTABILITY ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO A FEW MORE
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
OUTLINED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY FOR
THE THREAT OF SOME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ADDITIONAL MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS IT CONTINUES EAST INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI,
TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS. DEEP GULF MOISTURE SUPPORTED BY
ANOTHER DAY OF RETURN FLOW AS WELL AS A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVES PASSING OVER THE REGION WILL BRING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE SPC ISSUING A BROAD ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, DESTRUCTIVE WINDS, AND
TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG. IN ADDITION, LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
TO THE NORTH, A BROAD SWATH OF DAMAGING ICING, LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOWFALL, AND SLEET WILL EXTEND ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND IN A
MUCH COLDER AIRMASS NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE SWATH OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM NORTHERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA EAST THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
INTO FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UP OF MICHIGAN. FORECAST SNOW
TOTALS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2-4", LOCALLY 4-8", WITH THESE HEAVIER
AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UP OF
MICHIGAN SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWS
WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THE
FREEZING RAIN, WITH LIKELY SIGNIFICANT/DAMAGING ICING TOTALS OF
0.25-0.5", LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 1", IS EXPECTED JUST TO THE SOUTH OF
THE SNOW BAND FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA EAST THROUGH NORTHERN
WISCONSIN, THE UP OF MICHIGAN, THE NORTHERN LP OF MICHIGAN, AS
WELL AS THROUGH PORTIONS OF UPSTATE NEW YORK INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
NEW ENGLAND. THESE AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE LIKELY LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE
AND POWER OUTAGES. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL TAPER OFF LATE
SUNDAY AND INTO THE DAY MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF A LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
THIS WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD AND SUPPORTED BY
UPSLOPE FLOW WITH THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE MOUNTAINS.
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS,
BUT SOME ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL IS FORECAST
FOR THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES. AFTER A BRIEF DRY PERIOD LATER
SATURDAY AS LINGERING SHOWERS END FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
ANOTHER PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST SUNDAY WILL
BRING COASTAL/LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS,
ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG UPSLOPE PORTIONS OF THE
COASTAL RANGES NEAR THE CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER, WITH MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOWFALL ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA RANGES/SIERRA NEVADA. EVEN HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED INTO MONDAY.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS EAST TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST. FORECAST HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
FOR MOST LOCATIONS WHICH ARE UPWARDS OF 10-25 DEGREES ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR LATE MARCH. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING MUCH
COLDER HIGHS TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 40S AND 50S. MEANWHILE, BELOW AVERAGE, CHILLY
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND, WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S. CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE AROUND AVERAGE ACROSS THE WEST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST/INTERIOR WEST, THE 50S AND 60S IN
CALIFORNIA, AND THE 70S AND 80S INTO THE SOUTHWEST. THE WARM
TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH VERY DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
PROMPTED A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE SPC
FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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