919
FXUS01 KWBC 291934
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
334 PM EDT SAT MAR 29 2025
VALID 00Z SUN MAR 30 2025 - 00Z TUE APR 01 2025
...THERE'S A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREAD FROM CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT TO MISSISSIPPI/OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY
THEN EAST COAST ON MONDAY; FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED TO BRING
MODERATE TO MAJOR IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST TO
INTERIOR NORTHEAST...
..UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK; MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY...
MOIST/UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF INTERACTING WITH A
CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY PRODUCE IMPACTFUL RAINFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TONIGHT. PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN, WHICH
COULD LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. THUS, A MODERATE (AT
LEAST 40%) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE, A SPRAWLING AND DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL BRING
MULTIPLE WEATHER HAZARDS TO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
IMPACT THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEYS TONIGHT. THERE'S A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
(LEVEL 2/5) OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL OKLAHOMA, SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS, WESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI, NORTHWESTERN ARKANSAS AND
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE. THERE'S INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A
SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK TO UNFOLD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS ON SUNDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER ISSUED A BROAD ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (LEVEL
3/5) FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO SOUTHERN MICHIGAN. VERY LARGE
HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND STRONG TORNADOES ARE EXPECTED. SNOW
SHOWERS AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO PROLIFERATE FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FREEZING
RAIN WILL LIKELY BE THE MOST IMPACTFUL WEATHER TYPE WITHIN THE
COLD SECTOR, WITH ACCUMULATING ICE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
CONSIDERABLE DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE IN THESE AREAS. AVOID
TRAVEL IF POSSIBLE IN PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN WISCONSIN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT,
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND SPREAD INTO THE GULF/EAST COASTS ON
MONDAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A VERY BROAD SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE GULF COAST TO SOUTHERN
UPSTATE NEW YORK. SOME HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITHIN CONVECTIVE
SYSTEMS PROPAGATING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ELSEWHERE,
VERY DRY, WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PROMOTE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY UNTIL TUESDAY, WHEN COOLER AIR BEHIND THE
AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. ANOMALOUSLY MILD MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES MAY TIE OR BREAK EXISTING RECORDS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST, MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HEAVY SNOW TO THE SIERRA
NEVADA, WHILE SPREADING LOW ELEVATION RAIN, HIGH WINDS AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE BROADER WESTERN U.S. BEGINNING ON
SUNDAY.
KEBEDE
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