734
FXUS01 KWBC 300727
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
326 AM EDT SUN MAR 30 2025
VALID 12Z SUN MAR 30 2025 - 12Z TUE APR 01 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL SPREAD FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SUNDAY TO THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...
...ICE STORM CONTINUES SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER
MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AND UPSTATE NEW YORK/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
..UNSETTLED WEATHER ARRIVES OVER THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NEXT WEEK; MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH MONDAY...
AN ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN U.S.
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, FLASH
FLOODING, AND AN ICE STORM ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. ANOTHER DAY OF MOIST RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD
FRONT PROGRESSING EASTWARD THROUGH THE BROADER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVES PASS OVERHEAD WILL ENCOURAGE
THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS, INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY
SUNDAY. THIS HAS PROMPTED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
(LEVEL 3/5) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OVER THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX. VERY LARGE HAIL, SIGNIFICANT
DAMAGING WINDS (ESPECIALLY INTO THE EVENING HOURS), AND TORNADOES,
A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, CAN ALL BE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION,
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS WELL AS
INCREASING RAINFALL COVERAGE AS STORMS GROW UPSCALE INTO AN
ORGANIZED LINE INTO THE EVENING HOURS WILL BRING THE RISK OF SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE TO COVER THIS THREAT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD MONDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS
EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ANOTHER ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE FOR THE THREAT
OF LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. SOME ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY
FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AS WELL AS FOR THE DEEP
SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST.
TO THE NORTH, A SECOND ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE
AN ONGOING ICE STORM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT
LAKES AND UPSTATE NEW YORK/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AS WARMER AIR
ALOFT OVERRIDES A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS JUST NORTH OF A
WAVY QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SIGNIFICANT, POTENTIALLY
DESTRUCTIVE ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN UPWARDS OF
0.25-0.5", LOCALLY EVEN HIGHER, WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY,
WHICH IS ON TOP OF AN INITIAL ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN ON SATURDAY.
THESE TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY FROM NORTHERN WISCONSIN EASTWARD
THROUGH THE UP AND NORTHERN LP OF MICHIGAN AS WELL AS FOR FAR
UPSTATE NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. TREE DAMAGE AND POWER
OUTAGES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE. A BAND OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL WILL ALSO CONTINUE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FREEZING RAIN
FROM FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO THE UP OF MICHIGAN ALONG LAKE
SUPERIOR, AS WELL AS IN NORTHERN MAINE. THE HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE UP OF
MICHIGAN, WHERE ANOTHER 4-6", LOCALLY HIGHER, WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION SHOULD WIND DOWN OVERNIGHT SUNDAY,
LINGERING LONGEST ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE INTO EARLY MONDAY.
A LOWER ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW MIX AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY FOR THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVERHEAD AND IN THE
PRESENCE OF UPSLOPE FLOW AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS THROUGH THE
REGION. TO THE WEST, MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL
START TO RAMP UP SUNDAY INTO MONDAY FOR THE WEST COAST AS A
PACIFIC SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION. SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL FOCUSED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES NEAR THE
CALIFORNIA/OREGON BORDER. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED
FOR HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA RANGES AND SIERRA NEVADA AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN
CASCADES. SNOW TOTALS OF 1-2' WILL BE POSSIBLE, WITH HIGHER TOTALS
AS MUCH AS 4-5' FOR THE SIERRA. STRONG WINDS GUSTING UP TO 45-55
MPH ARE ALSO EXPECTED PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
OREGON/NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AS WELL AS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SIERRA
NEVADA VICINITY. MOISTURE WILL FLOW INLAND WITH THE SYSTEM AS IT
PUSHES INTO THE ROCKIES MONDAY, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LOWER
ELEVATION RAIN/SNOW AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. SOME AREAS OF
SNOW MAY BEGIN TO PUSH FURTHER EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINS A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN WARM, VERY DRY, AND BREEZY. AN ELEVATED THREAT WILL
CONTINUE INTO MONDAY, WITH ANOTHER CRITICAL RISK EXPECTED TUESDAY.
SOME INTENSE DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SUNDAY, WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING.
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE EARLY SPRING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S. AHEAD OF THE NOTED STORM
SYSTEM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S
WILL BE COMMON FROM THE MIDWEST EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC SUNDAY,
WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
SOUTHEAST. PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S TO MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY
TUESDAY WHILE AREAS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL REMAIN WARMER. BELOW
AVERAGE, CHILLY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ALONG THE
NORTHERN TIER WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 30S AND 40S FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD WILL BRING MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TO NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS JUMP INTO THE 40S, 50S, AND
EVEN SOME 60S. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERIOR WEST WITH 50S AND SOME 60S
EXPECTED, AS WELL AS THROUGH THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH HIGHS IN
THE 70S AND 80S. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
CALIFORNIA AS THE PACIFIC SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.
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