185
FXUS01 KWBC 310801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
VALID 12Z MON MAR 31 2025 - 12Z WED APR 02 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST MONDAY...
...PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WEST WITH LOWER
ELEVATION/COASTAL RAINS AND HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS AND
MIDWEST; SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY FLASH FLOOD THREAT BEGINS FROM THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY...
...ANOTHER LATE SEASON WINTER STORM FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL EXPECTED...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER
THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD MONDAY THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC, SOUTHEAST, AND
CENTRAL GULF COAST. A COMBINATION OF AN ONGOING LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS WELL AS RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC)
OUTLINING MUCH OF THE REGION IN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5).
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES CAN ALL BE
EXPECTED. IN ADDITION, WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST FROM RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS AND PLENTIFUL GULF
MOISTURE TO SUPPORT INTENSE DOWNPOURS HAS PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) FOR THE RISK OF SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. SOME MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO
FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS NEW ENGLAND, INCLUDING FOR
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE A WINTRY MIX/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL TRANSITION TO RAIN FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A WARM
FRONT AND MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE EAST
COAST BY LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH THE CHANCE A FEW FLURRIES MAY MIX IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR FLORIDA INTO TUESDAY.
TO THE WEST, LOWER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AS A
STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES INLAND THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON THROUGH MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS, THOUGH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RANGES AS WELL
AS THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHERE STORM TOTALS SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 2-4 FEET FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS UPWARDS OF 12"+ WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO
70 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH MUCH OF
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
GIVEN THESE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED AN ELEVATED
RISK (LEVEL 1/3) FOR MONDAY WITH THE RETURN OF A CRITICAL RISK
(LEVEL 2/3) FOR TUESDAY THAT WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER-TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN/REINFORCE THE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST.
INTENSIFYING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY. STRONG UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS AS WELL AS SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO SOME INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS,
WITH THE SPC MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL
2/5) FOR THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, MORE WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AHEAD OF A LIFTING WARM
FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY MAY LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN ON
WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AHEAD OF IT OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THE
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND ARKLATEX, WITH REPEATED ROUNDS
OF STORMS LEADING TO MULTIPLE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
3/4) IS IN PLACE CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
MID-SOUTH WHERE THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE, A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SET UP ALONG AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH
SNOWFALL BEGINNING AS EARLY AS MONDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL IS FORECAST
TO RAMP UP IN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE DAY
WEDNESDAY, WITH TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8", LOCALLY 8"+. A MIX OF
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
SNOW BAND FROM WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONE SYSTEM
LEAVING THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATING
TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
TEND TO BE WARMER/ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
COLDER/BELOW AVERAGE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY. WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC BEFORE A COLD FRONT PASSAGE BRINGS COOLER,
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY. HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN CHILLY AND
BELOW AVERAGE WHILE COOLER HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE MIDWEST WILL WARM ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN
WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. GENERALLY AVERAGE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS
ON TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM.
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