646
FXUS06 KWBC 311902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON MARCH 31 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 10 2025
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING AN AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO PROGRESS
FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH RIDGING BECOMING
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. TROUGHING INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS
CENTRAL ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN, WITH RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES EXPANDING OVER THE STATE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. TODAY’S MANUAL
6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS, AND BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
CONUS. THE LARGEST POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE ANOMALIES ARE INDICATED CLOSER TO THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. NEAR- TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED
OVER MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS, FAR EASTERN MAINLAND, AND
SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH INCREASING NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW BEHIND
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PREDICTED TO MOVE THROUGH AT THE OUTSET OF THE PERIOD, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES (GREATER THAN 80 PERCENT) ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THERE IS SOME CONCERN FOR EARLY SPRING FROSTS OR
FREEZES ACROSS SOME AREAS AS RELATIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES COINCIDE WITH
EMERGING VEGETATION. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO LINGER LONGER
INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE COASTAL SOUTHEAST AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FAVORING A TILT TOWARD INCREASED ODDS FOR NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE. RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST FAVORS ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL
MAINLAND ALASKA SUPPORTS INCREASED CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE DUE TO ENHANCED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND. INCREASING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER
THE ALEUTIANS SUPPORTS ENHANCED NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CHANCES.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII.
A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FAVORED TO QUICKLY PROGRESS EAST AT THE OUTSET OF THE
PERIOD. WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE INCREASED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES, A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WESTERN CONUS AND BUILDING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND MIDWEST AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ELEVATED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED ACROSS EASTERN ALASKA DUE TO ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW
AHEAD OF TROUGHING. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS UNDERNEATH A MORE NORTHERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII
SUPPORTED BY THE CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5,
DUE TO VERY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT AND A SLOW PROGRESSION OF AMPLIFIED FEATURES
ACROSS THE FORECAST DOMAIN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 14 2025
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN PREDICTED DURING WEEK-2 IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH A SLIGHT EASTWARD PROGRESSION AND DECREASING
AMPLIFICATION OF FEATURES. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING RIDGING (TROUGHING) ACROSS THE WESTERN (EASTERN) CONUS. THE WEEK-2
MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FOR MOST AREAS EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER, AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS UPSTREAM TO THE WEST. THE
STRONGEST POSITIVE AND NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AGAIN REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. WEAKLY ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS ALASKA
UNDERNEATH A WEAK TROUGH SIGNATURE PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND.
LARGER POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND FAR
WESTERN MAINLAND ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE
BERING SEA.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES REMAIN ELEVATED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, WITH ENHANCED CHANCES FOR
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES (GREATER
THAN 70 PERCENT) FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. AS THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND WEAKENS,
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS
RESULTING IN AN EASTWARD EXPANSION OF THE ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
CHANCES TO INCLUDE THESE AREAS. CHANCES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INCREASED ACROSS SOUTHERN ALASKA DUE TO CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW. A SLIGHT TILT
TOWARD INCREASED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED OVER THE
NORTHERN MAINLAND, SUPPORTED BY A TELECONNECTION WITH THE UPSTREAM POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER AND ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. INCREASED
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
RIDGING OVER THE WEST, COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST, FAVOR
INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS, WITH
CHANCES ABOVE 50 PERCENT EXTENDING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ENHANCED FRONTAL ACTIVITY ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TILTS THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION SUPPORTED BY THE
ECENS AND GEFS REFORECAST TOOLS, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST TIED TO POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT LATER IN THE
PERIOD. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE (BELOW) NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS EASTERN (WESTERN) MAINLAND ALASKA
UNDERNEATH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED SOUTHERLY (NORTHERLY) MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND, ALTHOUGH A MUCH DRIER SIGNAL
IS NOTED IN THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA LATER IN
THE PERIOD COMPARED TO EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 20% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DECREASING AMPLIFICATION.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970312 - 19900409 - 19670318 - 19630404 - 20040320
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19970314 - 19630402 - 19670318 - 19890311 - 19630328
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 06 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO B B
NEW MEXICO B N N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B N S TEXAS B N W TEXAS B N
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B A WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B A MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B A NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B A
N CAROLINA N A S CAROLINA N A GEORGIA B A
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN A A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 08 - 14 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A B S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA B B
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B
MINNESOTA B B IOWA B B MISSOURI B B
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B B
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK B B
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B N
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B B NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B B
MARYLAND B B DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B B
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page