138
FXUS01 KWBC 311957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 PM EDT MON MAR 31 2025
VALID 00Z TUE APR 01 2025 - 00Z THU APR 03 2025
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...
...PACIFIC SYSTEM BRINGS UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE WEST WITH LOWER
ELEVATION/COASTAL RAINS AND HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST; SIGNIFICANT MULTI-DAY FLASH FLOOD THREAT
BEGINS FROM THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
ARKLATEX WEDNESDAY...
...ANOTHER LATE SEASON WINTER STORM FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL EXPECTED...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES THIS
EVENING INTO THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC TO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST. WARM AND MOIST AIR STREAMING NORTHWARD OUT
AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR AN ORGANIZED
LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND EVEN A FEW
TORNADOES. AS A RESULT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE PANHANDLE OF FLORIDA, AND AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. IN
ADDITION, THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO DOWNPOURS
IN SPOTS. SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS WELL AS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE CARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND;
HOWEVER, LIMITED INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THE SEVERE WEATHER AND
HEAVY RAIN THREAT FARTHER SOUTH. STORMS SHOULD CLEAR THE EAST
COAST OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO THE ATLANTIC, WITH THE CHANCE A FEW FLURRIES MAY MIX IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE FOR FLORIDA INTO TUESDAY.
TO THE WEST, LOWER ELEVATION SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
HIGH ELEVATION SNOWS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AS A
STRONG PACIFIC FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHERN OREGON THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY, WITH MUCH LIGHTER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE WEST
COAST AND INLAND THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS, THOUGH
LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. SIGNIFICANT HEAVY
SNOWFALL ALSO CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA RANGES AS WELL
AS THE SIERRA NEVADA, WHERE STORM TOTALS SNOWFALL THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS IS FORECAST TO EXCEED 2-4 FEET FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. HEAVY SNOWFALL TOTALS UPWARDS OF 12"+ WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN
AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 50 TO
70 MPH WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT PASSAGE THROUGH MUCH OF
INTERIOR CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND INTO THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY. A FIRE WEATHER
THREAT WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
GIVEN THESE GUSTY WINDS ALONG WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED AN ELEVATED
RISK (LEVEL 1/3) FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH THE RETURN OF A
CRITICAL RISK (LEVEL 2/3) FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER-TROUGH/FRONTAL SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER OVER THE WEST WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD ONTO THE PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY, WITH LEE CYCLOGENESIS EAST OF THE ROCKIES
HELPING TO STRENGTHEN/REINFORCE THE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM AS
IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST.
INTENSIFYING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT. STRONG
DYNAMICS COMBINED WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LEAD
TO SOME INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE
THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN
ADDITION TO THE SLIGHT RISK, A SMALL ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) WAS
OUTLINED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS, HIGHLIGHTING THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. MORE WIDESPREAD CLUSTERS OF
STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AHEAD OF A
LIFTING WARM FRONT OVER THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY MAY LEAD
TO SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW
DOWN ON WEDNESDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS OUT AHEAD OF IT OVER THE
EASTERN U.S. FURTHER INCREASING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG FORCING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
IS LIKELY TO LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY
FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS
ISSUED A LARGE ENHANCED RISK AREA (LEVEL 3 OF 5) FOR THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT TORNADOES, WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS, AND LARGE
HAIL. MORE THAN 45 MILLION PEOPLE ARE WITHIN THE OUTLINED ENHANCED
RISK AREA, AND MORE THAN 90 MILLION ARE UNDER THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IN TOTAL. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL THROUGH THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND
ARKLATEX REGION, WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF STORMS LEADING TO
MULTIPLE DAYS OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAINFALL BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. A
MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) IS IN PLACE
CENTERED OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID-SOUTH WHERE THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED.
MEANWHILE, A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL SET UP ALONG AND
TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW TRACK FROM THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS EASTWARD
THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH
SNOWFALL BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT. SNOWFALL IS FORECAST TO RAMP UP
IN INTENSITY THROUGH LATE TUESDAY AND INTO THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WITH
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-8", LOCALLY 8"+. A MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SNOW BAND
FROM WISCONSIN INTO MICHIGAN LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH ONE SYSTEM
LEAVING THE EAST COAST AND THE NEXT SYSTEM PASSING THROUGH THE
WEST AND INTO THE PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATING
TEMPERATURES FOR MANY LOCATIONS, THOUGH CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY
TEND TO BE WARMER/ABOVE AVERAGE ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER AND
COLDER/BELOW AVERAGE ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY.
TODAY'S WELL ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC
WILL GIVE WAY TO COOLER, MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. HIGHS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES WILL REMAIN
CHILLY AND BELOW AVERAGE WHILE TEMPERATURES FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE MIDWEST WILL WARM ABOVE AVERAGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
HIGHS WILL REMAIN WARM AND ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST. MUCH COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE PACIFIC SYSTEM.
MILLER/PUTNAM
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