789
FXUS01 KWBC 010801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE APR 01 2025
VALID 12Z TUE APR 01 2025 - 12Z THU APR 03 2025
...SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT BEGINS
WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
TUESDAY TO THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...
...ANOTHER LATE SEASON WINTER STORM FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL EXPECTED...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION...
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...
A POTENT SPRING STORM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT,
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING, WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, AND A
WINTER STORM TO PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST
THIS WEEK. AN ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S. AS AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. INTENSIFYING MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A
LIFTING WARM FRONT AND EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS, ESPECIALLY BY THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS. VERY STRONG UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL DYNAMICS GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE WIND FIELDS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH AND SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR
THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND SEVERAL
TORNADOES, SOME OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
LATE EVENING HOURS. IN ADDITION, EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TUESDAY NIGHT. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, THE
PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW HEADING INTO THE
MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MORE
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT WITH AN INCREASING TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO
CLUSTER/REPEAT OVER THE SAME REGIONS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE
PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT SLOWS, MOST LIKELY ALONG AN AXIS FROM
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH.
INCREASING MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD
TO MORE INTENSE DOWNPOURS FOLLOWING ANOTHER DAY OF RETURN FLOW. A
SERIES OF MODERATE RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE REGION AS THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF A MULTI-DAY
SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT. THE PLACEMENT OF
THE COLD FRONT AND EXACT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO
CHANGE AS THE EVENT NEARS. HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY
SEEING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10" OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND ARKLATEX.
A BROAD ENHANCED RISK COVERS THE REGION FOR THE THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL, SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS, AND STRONG TORNADOES.
BEYOND THE FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, A LATE-SEASON
WINTER STORM IS ALSO FORECAST IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INTO TUESDAY EVENING, LASTING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION. AN AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW TOTALS IS
FORECAST ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS EAST THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4-8 INCHES, LOCALLY
HIGHER, IS EXPECTED. GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND
FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW
FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN EAST INTO THE LP OF MICHIGAN. A
LEADING SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WINTRY MIX
TO THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH
PRECIPITATION BEGINNING AS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER
TO MOSTLY RAIN AS WARMER AIR REACHES THE REGION. SOME LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE.
IN THE WEST, COASTAL RAIN, AN INTERIOR LOWER ELEVATION WINTRY MIX,
AND HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUE AS THE NOTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE REGION. AN INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE HAS
WANED OVERNIGHT BUT SOME MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO FAR SOUTHERN OREGON. PRECIPITATION
ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE INTERIOR FROM THE GREAT BASIN EAST
INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES
ACROSS THE REGIONAL MOUNTAIN RANGES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL
TOTALS OF OVER FOOT ARE EXPECTED, WITH 1-4 FEET POSSIBLE FOR THE
SIERRA NEVADA. SNOWFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR CALIFORNIA AND
WESTERN AREAS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY WHILE LINGERING FOR
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE POTENT
UPPER-JET ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AS IT DIVES SOUTH AND EASTWARD
OVER THE WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALSO BRING VERY
STRONG WINDS WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50-60 MPH FROM SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND THE SOUTHWEST EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
THE PLAINS. WARM TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
ON TOP OF THE HIGH WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE RETURN OF A CRITICAL
RISK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
FOR PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DUST STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WARMER/ABOVE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WEST. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY WILL SPREAD INTO THE
MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY, WITH CLOSER TO AVERAGE CONDITIONS AND HIGHS
IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE NORTHERN TIER WILL BE
MUCH COOLER, WITH 30S AND 40S FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS ACROSS THE WEST WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 40S FOR THE INTERIOR WEST, 50S FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
50S AND 60S IN CALIFORNIA, AND 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST.
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