732
FXUS01 KWBC 011959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
358 PM EDT TUE APR 01 2025
VALID 00Z WED APR 02 2025 - 00Z FRI APR 04 2025
...SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING, AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
FLASH FLOOD EVENT BEGINS WEDNESDAY FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS
THIS EVENING TO THE MIDWEST AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WEDNESDAY...
...ANOTHER LATE SEASON WINTER STORM FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL EXPECTED...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION...
...CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
A POTENT SPRING STORM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT,
LIFE-THREATENING, AND POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC FLASH FLOODING,
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER, AND IMPACTFUL WINTER WEATHER TO
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MIDWEST THIS WEEK. AN
ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AS AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL SYSTEM STRENGTHENS
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS
THE DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE EJECTS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
MOIST SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY AND BRING INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. COMBINED WITH STRONG ATMOSPHERIC
DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND SURFACE
LOW, THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER WILL STEADILY
INCREASE ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS MAINTAINED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR THE THREAT
OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND SEVERAL TORNADOES, SOME OF
WHICH COULD BE STRONG, ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.
IN ADDITION, EXPANDING STORM COVERAGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN, ON WEDNESDAY, THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO SLOW HEADING INTO THE MIDWEST/MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, ESPECIALLY WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT, AS AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH AN
INCREASING TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO CLUSTER/REPEAT OVER THE SAME
REGIONS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT
SLOWS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH. INCREASING
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO LEAD TO MORE
INTENSE DOWNPOURS FOLLOWING ANOTHER DAY OF RETURN FLOW ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4)
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE REGION AS THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF
A MULTI-DAY SIGNIFICANT, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT. ON
THURSDAY, THE EXISTING MODERATE RISK WAS UPGRADED TO A HIGH RISK
(LEVEL 4/4) FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, SOUTHERN ILLINOIS,
WESTERN KENTUCKY, AND NORTHWEST TENNESSEE GIVEN INCREASING
CONFIDENCE OF POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC IMPACTS FROM FLASH FLOODING
AND RIVER FLOODING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT AND
EXACT AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO CHANGE SOMEWHAT AS
THE EVENT NEARS, SEVERAL INCHES OF HEAVY RAIN ARE PROBABLE, WITH
SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 10" OVER
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE MID-SOUTH, ARKLATEX, AND NORTH TEXAS. A BROAD ENHANCED RISK
COVERS THE REGION FOR THE GROWING POTENTIAL OF VERY LARGE HAIL,
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS, AND STRONG TORNADOES, BUT THE GREATEST
THREAT LIES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS UPGRADED TO A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5).
BEYOND THE FLASH FLOOD AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT, A LATE-SEASON
WINTER STORM IS ALSO FORECAST IN THE COLDER AIR TO THE NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
MIDWEST. SNOW HAS ALREADY BEGUN AND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THIS EVENING, LASTING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REGION. AN AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW IS FORECAST ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS EAST
THROUGH CENTRAL/NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL OF 4-8 INCHES, LOCALLY HIGHER, IS EXPECTED.
GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL
CONDITIONS. A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED
JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW FROM CENTRAL
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN EAST INTO THE LP OF MICHIGAN. A LEADING
SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING WINTRY MIX TO THE
INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND ON WEDNESDAY WITH PRECIPITATION
BEGINNING AS SNOW/FREEZING RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO MOSTLY
RAIN AS WARMER AIR REACHES THE REGION. SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINE.
IN THE WEST, COASTAL RAIN, AN INTERIOR LOWER ELEVATION WINTRY MIX,
AND HEAVY HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW CONTINUE AS THE NOTED UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH SLOWLY PIVOTS OVER THE REGION. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTAL RANGES OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO
FAR SOUTHERN OREGON. PRECIPITATION ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
INTERIOR FROM THE GREAT BASIN EAST INTO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES SHOULD REMAIN VERY LIGHT WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGIONAL
MOUNTAIN RANGES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL TOTALS OF OVER FOOT
ARE EXPECTED, WITH 1-4 FEET POSSIBLE FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA.
SNOWFALL SHOULD COME TO AN END FOR CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN AREAS OF
THE GREAT BASIN BY WEDNESDAY WHILE LINGERING FOR THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE POTENT UPPER-JET
ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH AS IT DIVES SOUTH AND EASTWARD OVER THE
WEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL ALSO BRING VERY STRONG WINDS
WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 50-60 MPH FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE
SOUTHWEST EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE PLAINS. WARM
TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ON TOP OF THE HIGH
WINDS HAVE PROMPTED THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER TO HIGHLIGHT A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DUST
STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASINGLY WARMER/ABOVE AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. WHILE
TEMPERATURES REMAIN COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE UNDER THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE WEST. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SPREAD INTO THE MIDWEST BY WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY THE EASTERN U.S.
ON THURSDAY. PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH,
HIGHS IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL, ESPECIALLY WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT. NORTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE COOL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH
RESPECT TO SEASONAL AVERAGES, THE COLDEST DEPARTURES FROM NORMAL
ACROSS THE U.S. WILL GENERALLY RESIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE GIVEN PLENTIFUL CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MILLER/PUTNAM
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