088
FXUS01 KWBC 022001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT WED APR 02 2025
VALID 00Z THU APR 03 2025 - 00Z SAT APR 05 2025
...LIFE-THREATENING, CATASTROPHIC, AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC FLASH
FLOOD EVENT BEGINS FOR THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH...
...MAJOR SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK EXPECTED FOR THE MID-SOUTH
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MULTIPLE INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE...
...LATE SEASON WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL
EXPECTED...
...UNSETTLED WEATHER PERSISTS OVER THE WEST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A POWERFUL SPRING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A BARRAGE OF
LIFE-THREATENING WEATHER HAZARDS INCLUDING FLASH FLOODING AND
STRONG TORNADOES TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND
MID-SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE
FLASH FLOOD THREAT, WHICH IS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO MATERIALIZE, IS
ONLY THE BEGINNING OF A MULTI-DAY CATASTROPHIC AND POTENTIALLY
HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ACCOMPANYING STRONG LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE ITS
EASTWARD PUSH THROUGH THE MIDWEST, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS GIVEN VERY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL AND LOWER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS, AS WELL AS A DEEP INFLUX
OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FLOWING NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF, WILL
HELP SUPPORT A BROAD WARM SECTOR FEATURING WIDESPREAD, INTENSE
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWEST THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS, MID-SOUTH, ARKLATEX,
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) MAINTAINS A
HIGH RISK (LEVEL 5/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
MID-SOUTH AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY WHERE THE MOST FAVORABLE OVERLAP
OF STRONG UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY
LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES, INCLUDING MULTIPLE INTENSE
TORNADOES, AS WELL AS VERY LARGE HAIL AND SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING
WINDS. A BROADER ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) COVERS THE REST OF THE
REGION WHERE A MORE SCATTERED BUT STILL SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF
TORNADOES, LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS EXISTS. UNFORTUNATELY,
THIS SEVERE THREAT WILL BE COMPOUNDED BY THE BEGINNING OF A
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOOD EVENT. STRENGTHENING UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGING TO THE EAST WILL HELP TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE
EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF REPEATED
ROUNDS OF STORMS AS THEY BEGIN TO MOVE MORE PARALLEL TO THE
STALLING BOUNDARY. THE BLOCKED FLOW WILL ALSO HELP TO MAINTAIN A
SUPPLY OF PLENTIFUL GULF MOISTURE HELPING TO FOSTER
VERY-EFFICIENT, INTENSE DOWNPOUR PRODUCING STORMS. A MODERATE RISK
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) REMAINS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON,
OVERLAPPING MUCH OF THE SPC HIGH RISK FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE MID-SOUTH WHERE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL AND SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY LEADING TO AN EVEN GREATER RISK OF SIGNIFICANT HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS. THE REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO
INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS, AND COULD BRING ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
OVER AREAS ALREADY EXPERIENCING FLOODING. FOR THESE REASONS,
ANOTHER MODERATE RISK IS IN PLACE THURSDAY FOR THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY/MID SOUTH TO THE ARKLATEX WITH AN EMBEDDED HIGH RISK (LEVEL
4/4) FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY TO NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS WHERE
WIDESPREAD, LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED. THE FRONT
WILL REMAIN STALLED INTO THE WEEKEND WITH MODERATE RISKS ALREADY
IN PLACE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THIS EVENT WILL BRING
POTENTIALLY HISTORIC AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL, WITH SOME LOCATIONS
POSSIBLY SEEING AS MUCH AS 10-15"+ OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COMMUNITIES THROUGHOUT THE AREA SHOULD PREPARE NOW FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LONG DURATION AND SEVERE DISRUPTIONS TO DAILY LIFE
GIVEN THE EXPECTED EXTREME RAINFALL AND FLOOD RISK. ADDITIONAL
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ON
THURSDAY, THE SPC MAINTAINS A BROAD SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FROM
THE MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND
INTRODUCED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FROM THE ARKLATEX TO
WESTERN TENNESSEE FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL,
AND A FEW TORNADOES. ON FRIDAY, A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS
HIGHLIGHTED FROM PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO CENTRAL
TEXAS, WITH AN ENHANCED RISK FROM PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MISSOURI TO
FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS. SIMILARLY TO THURSDAY, ALL SEVERE HAZARDS ARE
POSSIBLE, INCLUDING A FEW TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL.
MEANWHILE, A WINTER STORM CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW FORECAST
ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK FROM THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF SNOW ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE THE STORM WRAPS UP BY THURSDAY MORNING, WITH THE
HEAVIEST TOTALS MOST LIKELY ALONG THE NORTHERN SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY WINDS MAY LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND VERY
DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SAME SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL ALSO BRING WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO AREAS OF
THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
(ESPECIALLY FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN MAINE) BEFORE WARMER AIR MOVES IN AND CHANGES MOST
PRECIPITATION OVER TO PLAIN RAIN.
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, WINTRY WEATHER CONTINUES FOR ANOTHER COUPLE
OF DAYS ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AS EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS
ROUND THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REGION. SOME MODERATE
SNOW TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAIN
RANGES ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES, AND FOUR CORNERS THROUGH TONIGHT. WESTERN AREAS WILL SEE
THE SNOW TAPER OFF BY EARLY THURSDAY WHILE THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION. A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL HELP TO ENHANCE UPSLOPE FLOW AND
BRING SOME HEAVIER SNOW TOTALS TO THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME SNOW
ALSO EXPECTED FOR ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS.
IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT, STRONG, GUSTY WINDS, LOW
HUMIDITY, AND DRY FUELS ARE RESULTING IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RED FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS. THE THREAT OF FIRE
WEATHER REMAINS ELEVATED ON THURSDAY, BUT WON'T BE AS HIGH AS
TODAY.
AN AMPLIFYING PATTERN WITH MEAN RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND THE NOTED TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/WESTERN U.S. WILL
FAVOR WARMER, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST AND
COOLER, MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST THROUGH LATE
WEEK. SOME OF THE GREATEST ANOMALIES WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS EASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST, WHERE HIGHS INTO THE 80S
AND LOW 90S MAY REACH DAILY RECORD-TYING/BREAKING LEVELS. WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S FOR THE MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S THURSDAY FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR THE
MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST WILL WARM INTO THE MID-60S TO LOW 80S ON
THURSDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD. AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS WILL REMAIN COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID-30S TO THE MID-50S. IN THE WEST,
FORECAST HIGHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE INTERIOR WEST,
THE 50S IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, THE 50S AND 60S IN CALIFORNIA,
AND THE 60S TO LOW 70S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
MILLER/PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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