096
FXUS06 KWBC 041902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT FRI APRIL 04 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 14 2025
THE 0Z GEFS, ECENS, AND CMCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING AN AMPLIFIED
500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA. WEAK TROUGHING IS FORECAST OVER
THE EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS), WITH RIDGING ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
WEST-CENTRAL CONUS AND EXPANDING EAST DURING THE PERIOD. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
HAVE MORE DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES AND WEAK TROUGHING PROGRESSING FROM THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC INTO
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE GEFS IS MAINTAINING A STRONGER AND MORE
COHERENT TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS, WHILE THE ECENS AND
CANADIAN HAVE THE TROUGH DISSIPATING AS IT MOVES INLAND. A STRONG POSITIVE
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER REMAINS FORECAST ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
EASTERN SIBERIA ENHANCING WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS ALASKA.
PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVIOUSLY FORECAST OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN CONUS HAVE MOSTLY DISAPPEARED WITH JUST LINGERING CHANCES ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST. RIDGING FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL
CONUS FAVORS ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSES EAST, ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES HAVE
EXPANDED EAST TO WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. TROUGHING PREDICTED OVER CENTRAL
MAINLAND ALASKA SUPPORTS SLIGHT CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTHEAST ALASKA. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE INCREASED ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH AXIS ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND. INCREASING
MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS OVER THE ALEUTIANS SUPPORT ENHANCED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE FAVORED ACROSS
HAWAII.
A BROAD AREA OF ENHANCED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES ESTABLISHED.
A COASTAL STORM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ON THE EASTERN SEABOARD DURING THE
PERIOD, THIS MAY BRING A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PARTS OF THE EAST
COAST, SLIGHTLY ELEVATING CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION. AS A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED INTO THIS REGION WITH ENHANCED ONSHORE FLOW. NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA
MAINLAND AND THE ALEUTIANS UNDERNEATH A MORE NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
WITH NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE REMAINDER OF MAINLAND ALASKA.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII SUPPORTED BY THE
CONSOLIDATION FORECAST TOOL.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL HEIGHT PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18 2025
THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN PREDICTED DURING WEEK-2 IS LESS AMPLIFIED TO THAT OF
THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH SOME EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FEATURES. THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT REGARDING RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS AND WEAK TROUGHING OFF THE EAST COAST AND IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FOR
THE PERIOD MEAN. WEAKLY ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE DEPICTED ACROSS ALASKA
UNDERNEATH A WEAK TROUGH PERSISTING ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. LARGER
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND THE FAR WESTERN
MAINLAND ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN RUSSIA AND THE BERING
SEA.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED ACROSS MUCH
OF THE CONUS, ESPECIALLY THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS (>60%),
UNDER THE FORECAST POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT DEPARTURES. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC RESULTING IN AN EASTWARD
EXPANSION OF THE ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES TO INCLUDE
THESE AREAS. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TIER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION.
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS FAVORED OVER THE WESTERN
MAINLAND. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAIN FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
RIDGING OVER THE WEST, COMBINED WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EAST,
FAVORS INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS.
THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES ARE ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS AND THE
SOUTHEAST. AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NORTHEAST COAST IS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, INCREASING CHANCES
FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THIS REGION. NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS TODAY WITH CHANCES FOR AN
AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW DISPLACED TO THE WEST. A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION REMAINS FAVORED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA UNDERNEATH
SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE MAINLAND ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK TROUGHING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MAINLAND. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED
ACROSS HAWAII, EXCLUDING THE BIG ISLAND, CONSISTENT WITH THE CONSOLIDATION
GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 10% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED
ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25%
OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE PATTERN.
FORECASTER: RYAN BOLT
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19630402 - 19540323 - 19960327 - 19890316 - 19540328
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19540323 - 19770401 - 19960326 - 19550317 - 20020318
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 14 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A B OKLAHOMA A B
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A B
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN A N
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A N
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N A CONN N A RHODE IS N A
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N A W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN B B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B B AK INT BSN B N
AK S INT N B AK SO COAST N B AK PNHDL A N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B A OREGON B N NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A N
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN N N
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK N N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE B N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA A B GEORGIA A B
FL PNHDL A B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N N
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N N AK SO COAST A N AK PNHDL A N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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