986
FXUS01 KWBC 050808
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
407 AM EDT SAT APR 05 2025
VALID 12Z SAT APR 05 2025 - 12Z MON APR 07 2025
...LIFE-THREATENING, CATASTROPHIC, AND POTENTIALLY HISTORIC FLASH
FLOOD EVENT CONTINUES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND MID-SOUTH TO
THE ARKLATEX THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SEVERE WEATHER RISKS CONTINUE FOR PARTS OF THE OHIO, TENNESSEE,
AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS SATURDAY AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST SUNDAY...
...MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SATURDAY...
...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN BRINGS LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS
ACROSS THE U.S. THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ACTING ON A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FOCUS FOR
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY TO THE
MID-SOUTH TO THE ARKLATEX THROUGH SATURDAY. DEEP MOISTURE POOLING
ALONG THE FRONT COMBINED WITH IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR PERSISTENT ROUNDS OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS THROUGHOUT THE REGION. THIS WILL
ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE FOR THE OZARKS AND MID-SOUTH, WHERE THE
BEST MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, AND FORCING OVERLAP. STORM INITIATION
AND MOVEMENT ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
LEAD TO REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE SAME HARD-HIT
AREAS, LEADING TO SIGNIFICANT TO EXTREME, POTENTIALLY HISTORIC,
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER INCREASINGLY SATURATED SOILS. A HIGH RISK (AT
LEAST 70%) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
SATURDAY, HIGHLIGHTING AN INCREASINGLY DANGEROUS AND
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH RISK, MODERATE AND
SLIGHT RISKS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE IN PLACE OVER BROADER AREAS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. WHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED. AS HAS BEEN
SAID REPEATEDLY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, THIS HAS THE MAKINGS OF
A CATASTROPHIC, POTENTIALLY HISTORIC HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOOD EVENT, WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY SEEING RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 10-20" WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE. THE REPEATING
ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO LIKELY CAUSE MANY RIVERS TO
EXCEED THEIR BANKS, WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR CATASTROPHIC MAJOR
FLOODING ACROSS THE OZARKS, PORTIONS OF THE LOWER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS, AND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. UNFORTUNATELY, THE
RISK OF MAJOR RIVER FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, LONG AFTER THE LAST DROP OF RAIN HAS FALLEN. THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY,
TAKING THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL ALONG WITH IT. WITH THE FRONT
ON THE MOVE, THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY. WHILE THE INCREASINGLY
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE FRONT SHOULD HELP TO REDUCE THE FLOODING
THREAT OVERALL (ESPECIALLY COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW DAYS),
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT WILL STILL SUPPORT DOWNPOUR
PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE CAPABLE OF FLASH FLOODING. AS A
RESULT, A SLIGHT RISK (AT LEAST 15%) REMAINS IN PLACE. THE THREAT
OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WANES CONSIDERABLY BY MONDAY, WITH ONLY A
MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5%) IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COASTLINE.
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO BE A CONCERN THIS WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL RISKS FORECAST FROM THE ARKLATEX TO THE OHIO VALLEY ON
SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST ON
SUNDAY. GIVEN PLENTIFUL MOISTURE, INSTABILITY, FORCING, AND WIND
SHEAR, THE PARAMETERS ARE IN PLACE FOR ANOTHER DAY OF DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS, LARGE HAIL, AND SEVERAL TORNADOES ACROSS THE REGION.
AS A RESULT, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO WESTERN TENNESSEE. A
BROADER SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE FROM TEXAS THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY. ON SUNDAY, THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND SOUTHEAST. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5)
FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TOP A CHILLY POST-FRONTAL AIR
MASS WITHIN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS WILL SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL MOSTLY
FAVOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO, THOUGH
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS UPWARDS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL. THE UPPER LOW EJECTS EASTWARD ON
SUNDAY, ALLOWING FOR SOME WET SNOW TO FALL ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA, KANSAS, AND MISSOURI. SOME LIGHT, MINOR ACCUMULATIONS ON
COLDER, ELEVATED SURFACES ARE POSSIBLE.
THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE UNITED STATES WILL
LEAD TO LARGE TEMPERATURE SWINGS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OUTSIDE
OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC, TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. WILL CLIMB WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS ON
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE FARTHER WEST, MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RESIDE FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. AFTER SEVERAL CHILLIER
THAN NORMAL DAYS, THE WEST COAST WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO WARM BACK
ABOVE NORMAL. THEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THE CHILLY AIR MASS OVER
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. SPREADS EASTWARD, BRINGING AN
END TO THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST. OUT WEST,
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES AS WARM ANOMALIES CONTINUE TO EXPAND
EASTWARD INTO INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S., WITH ANOTHER COLD
FRONT BRINGING A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY.
MILLER
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