967
FXUS06 KWBC 081901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE APRIL 08 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 18 2025
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE 0Z ECENS IS MORE ROBUST WITH THE FEATURE COMPARED TO THE
0Z GEFS AND CMCE, DEPICTING STRONGER NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THE EAST
AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE PERIOD, AND A MORE SUPPRESSED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
RELATIVE TO THE OTHER GUIDANCE. RIDGING IS GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN
CONUS, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH FAVORING A DISRUPTION OF POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AS IT PROGRESSES TOWARD THE GREAT PLAINS BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS THE
NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF RIDGING FROM EASTERN
RUSSIA TO THE BERING SEA AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA. FOR THE PERIOD
AS A WHOLE, THE 6-10 DAY MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS WEST
OF THE ROCKIES AND OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS, WITH
THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (+60 METERS) ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND
PACIFIC NORTHWEST. NEAR-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED OVER THE ROCKIES, AND
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE INDICATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS, UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, GREAT LAKES, AND NORTHEAST. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND NORTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH NEAR-TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVORED ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN
MAINLAND.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST IS DEPENDENT ON THE AMPLITUDE OF
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE PERIOD. THE
UNCALIBRATED 0Z ECENS FAVORS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD AS A WHOLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST, WHILE THE GEFS
AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES. TODAY’S FORECAST
LEANS TOWARD ELEVATED CHANCES OF NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
TREND TO STRONGER TROUGHING IN ALL OF THE MODELS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDOMINANT RIDGING. THE RIDGE-TROUGH
PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION ACROSS ALASKA FAVORS ELEVATED ODDS FOR BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, WITH HIGHER
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND
AND THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FAVORS
ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC. CONVERSELY, SHORTWAVE TROUGHING FAVORS ELEVATED NEAR- TO
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR A SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD, ALTHOUGH SIGNALS IN THE MODELS ARE WEAK. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES ARE ENHANCED ACROSS THE WEST TIED TO INCREASING
POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 45% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GENERALLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE AMPLITUDE
OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 22 2025
DURING WEEK-2, RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CONUS, WITH TROUGHING PERSISTING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THE LARGEST
UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARDS TO THE EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE EAST, WITH
THE 0Z CMCE DEPICTING A BROADER REGION OF HIGHER MAGNITUDE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES ACROSS THE EAST COMPARED TO THE 0Z GEFS AND ECENS. TROUGHING
INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN WITH
RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVERSPREADING MUCH OF ALASKA DURING THE
PERIOD. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND DEPICTS NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST, WITH ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE
FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES (+150
METERS) CENTERED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS DURING WEEK-2 TIED TO A TENDENCY TOWARD MORE RIDGING, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 60 PERCENT) OVER THE GREAT BASIN. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURE CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC, AND NORTHEAST TIED TO A STRONGER SIGNAL IN THE UNCALIBRATED
GUIDANCE, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY GIVEN THE
NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A VARIABLE
TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING
RIDGING FAVORING MORE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ELEVATED OVER THE REGION. WEAK
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND NORTHEASTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS HAWAII.
SIGNALS ARE GENERALLY WEAK FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE U.S. DURING WEEK-2,
WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGHING POTENTIALLY SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR A SURFACE LOW TRACK
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WHERE WEAK
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE POSTED. THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE FROM SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE, AND
ALSO SUPPORTED BY THE ANALOGS. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE
ELEVATED ACROSS ALASKA AND HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 25% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 50% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 25% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DECREASING AMPLIFICATION AND LACK OF
ROBUST SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: THOMAS COLLOW
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980419 - 19590410 - 19770406 - 19690409 - 19860319
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19980419 - 19600406 - 19590409 - 19770406 - 19860322
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 14 - 18 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA N N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A B KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS N N MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N N OHIO B N KENTUCKY N N
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA A B NEW YORK B N
VERMONT N N NEW HAMP N N MAINE N N
MASS N N CONN N N RHODE IS N N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N B DELAWARE N B VIRGINIA N B
N CAROLINA N B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN B N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 22 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A N WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A B COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS N A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS N A MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN B A
INDIANA N A OHIO B A KENTUCKY N A
TENNESSEE N N ALABAMA N N NEW YORK B A
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B A CONN B A RHODE IS B N
PENN B A NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B A
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N A
N CAROLINA N N S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE A A
AK ALEUTIAN N N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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