936
FXUS06 KWBC 101901
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT THU APRIL 10 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 20 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL PACIFIC, WITH A GRADUAL EASTWARD SHIFT OF
RIDGING FROM EASTERN RUSSIA TO THE BERING SEA AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA. RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED
ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH AND BELOW NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE
BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED OVER EASTERN MAINLAND ALASKA.
SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS UNDERNEATH PREDOMINANT RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE STRONGEST
PROBABILITIES (>80%) ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS AND TROUGHING. THE
RIDGE-TROUGH PLACEMENT AND PROGRESSION ACROSS ALASKA FAVORS ELEVATED ODDS FOR
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE WESTERN MAINLAND. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST
CONSOLIDATION TOOL.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND A DEPARTING FRONTAL SYSTEM FAVORS
ENHANCED CHANCES OF BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES.
CONVERSELY, ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN
TEXAS, MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE
DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
PROBABILITIES ARE ALSO ENHANCED ACROSS THE WEST TIED TO INCREASING POSITIVE
HEIGHT ANOMALIES AND SUPPORTED BY THE GEFS AND ECENS REFORECAST TOOLS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGHING PROGRESSING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA FAVORS ENHANCED
SOUTHERLY FLOW, AND SUBSEQUENT INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN MAINLAND AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA.
NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE INCREASED ACROSS THE PORTIONS
OF SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA AND ALEUTIANS BEHIND THE TROUGH. ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED IN HAWAII WITH BETTER AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL
GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE-AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. GOOD
AGREEMENT AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY A PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 24 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. ANOMALOUS RIDGING IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE WESTERN CONUS, WITH WEAK TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.
TROUGHING INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN
WITH RIDGING AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVERSPREADING MUCH OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALASKA DURING THE PERIOD. THE WEEK-2 MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND
DEPICTS NEAR-TO SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER PARTS OF MAINE, WITH
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS FORECAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CONUS. ABOVE-NORMAL
HEIGHTS ARE FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WITH THE LARGEST POSITIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES (+150 METERS) CENTERED ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS. SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL
500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS HAWAII.
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED OVER MUCH OF THE
CONUS DURING WEEK-2 TIED TO A TENDENCY TOWARD MORE RIDGING, WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES (GREATER THAN 70 PERCENT) OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CHANCES ARE ELEVATED ACROSS NORTHEASTERN CONUS TIED TO A STRONGER
COLD SIGNAL IN THE UNCALIBRATED GUIDANCE, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACTIVITY GIVEN THE NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALY CENTER ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. A VARIABLE TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA
WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFTING RIDGING FAVORING MORE MID-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, WITH NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ELEVATED OVER THE REGION. WEAK PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE ALEUTIANS. IN HAWAII, ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY.
SIGNALS ARE GENERALLY WEAK FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE U.S. DURING WEEK-2,
WITH ACTIVE FRONTAL SYSTEMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS WHERE WEAK
PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE POSTED. THE GEFS AND ECENS
REFORECAST TOOLS SUPPORT ENHANCED CHANCES FOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS
PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS UNDERNEATH MORE INFLUENCE FROM
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE ELEVATED
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO, TEXAS, ALASKA AND ALL OF HAWAII’S ISLANDS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
CONTINUED GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT, OFFSET BY DECREASING AMPLIFICATION AND LACK OF
ROBUST SYNOPTIC FEATURES IN THE GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20080324 - 19980420 - 19620414 - 19600405 - 19770407
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19620415 - 19560324 - 20080324 - 19690423 - 19600406
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 16 - 20 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A B NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A B E MONTANA A B WYOMING A B
UTAH A B ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A B
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A B S TEXAS A B W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A B WISCONSIN N N
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI N B MICHIGAN B N
INDIANA B N OHIO B N KENTUCKY B N
TENNESSEE B N ALABAMA B N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B N NEW HAMP B N MAINE B A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN B N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA B N
MARYLAND B N DELAWARE B N VIRGINIA B N
N CAROLINA B N S CAROLINA B N GEORGIA B B
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N B AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN B B AK WESTERN B N AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 18 - 24 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO A N NEVADA A B
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A N
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A N
NEW MEXICO A N N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A N
NEBRASKA A N KANSAS A N OKLAHOMA A N
N TEXAS A N S TEXAS A N W TEXAS A N
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A N MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A N MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN N A
INDIANA A N OHIO N N KENTUCKY A N
TENNESSEE A N ALABAMA A N NEW YORK B N
VERMONT B A NEW HAMP B A MAINE N A
MASS B N CONN B N RHODE IS B N
PENN N N NEW JERSEY B N W VIRGINIA N N
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA N N
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL A N FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE N A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N N AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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