216
FXUS01 KWBC 110801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT FRI APR 11 2025
VALID 12Z FRI APR 11 2025 - 12Z SUN APR 13 2025
...STORMY WEATHER FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH
LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOWS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
FROM NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA INTO EASTERN NEW YORK AND CENTRAL TO
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...
...COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE WEST WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND ENHANCED FIRE RISK TO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
PLAINS...
...RECORD WARMTH EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST, GREAT BASIN, AND TEXAS...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY ACROSS THE CONUS,
LEADING TO AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE OFFSHORE THE
EAST COAST ON SATURDAY. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL SEE STORMY
WEATHER FROM THE CAROLINAS INTO NEW ENGLAND OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS. THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COULD SEE AS MUCH AS 2-3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. WHILE THIS
REGION COULD USE THE RAINFALL, ISOLATED FLOODING MAY STILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS. ON THE SOUTHERN END OF
THE STORM SYSTEM IN NORTH FLORIDA AND THE CAROLINAS, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER AS SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY FAVOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME
HAIL. ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD
ENOUGH FOR LATE SEASON ACCUMULATING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS FROM FAR NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, ACROSS NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY, NORTHERN AND EASTERN NEW YORK STATE, AND WESTERN, CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE IN THE 30S AND 40S FOR COASTAL REGIONS FOR THE WEEKEND.
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH, SURFACE COLD FRONT, IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE WEST COAST AND MOUNTAIN WEST AND WILL REACH THE PLAINS BY
SATURDAY. DOWNSLOPE WINDS, LEE TROUGHS, AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROMOTE SOME POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AN ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
RISK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TODAY AND A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RISK NEAR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THE SOUTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE, AS SOME
GUSTS COULD BE AS HIGH AS 35 MPH IN THE CRITICAL FIRE AREA. AS FOR
THE CONVECTIVE SIDE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A MARGINAL
RISK ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA FOR THE
THREAT OF WIND GUSTS OVER 55 MPH WITH HIGH-TOPPED SUPERCELLS ON
SATURDAY. GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY ACROSS
THE MIDWEST AND KANSAS/COLORADO AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING IN.
WHILE THE OVERALL AMPLIFIED FLOW ACROSS THE CONUS IS LEADING TO
STORMY WEATHER ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE EAST, THE WESTERN
COMPONENT OF THIS AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL SUPPORT MUCH ABOVE
AVERAGE TO RECORD WARMTH ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
SATURDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 100S TO MIDDLE
90S ARE GENERALLY FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDWEST WILL ALSO BE AS MUCH AS 20
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE WESTERN TROUGH. TEMPERATURES IN
THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE WIDESPREAD.
ELSEWHERE. A BIG STORY IS THE RIVER FLOODING STILL ONGOING OVER
THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FROM THE MULTI-DAY STORM LAST
WEEK. LISTEN TO LOCAL OFFICIALS AND YOUR LOCAL WEATHER FORECAST
OFFICE FOR INFORMATION ON FLOOD STAGE AND CRESTING LEVELS, TURN
AROUND, DON'T DROWN.
WILDER
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