121
FXUS01 KWBC 130803
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
403 AM EDT SUN APR 13 2025
VALID 12Z SUN APR 13 2025 - 12Z TUE APR 15 2025
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN PLAINS ...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY, APPALACHIANS, AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION ON
MONDAY...
...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST
COAST EARLY THIS WEEK, WHILE THE WEST CONTINUES TO REMAIN WARM...
THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT WILL REMAIN IN THE CRITICAL CATEGORY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN THE REGION, WIND GUST AROUND 20 MPH
AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FIRE IGNITION AND SPREAD. THE NORTHERN PLAINS OF NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA HAVE A ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK AS GUSTY
POST-FRONTAL WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER RISK LOOKS TO REMAIN ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF KANSAS, NEBRASKA, AND SOUTH DAKOTA WITH SIMILAR
METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS PRESENT.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM MONDAY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY,
APPALACHIANS, AND PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FROM EASTERN KENTUCKY TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
HAZARDS INCLUDE A COUPLE OF TORNADOES, SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS,
AND LARGE HAIL. FLOODING IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED AS THE STORMS
WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.
A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS AND WEST WILL
BRING AN END TO DAILY RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES, BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE AS MID-LEVEL
RIDGING ONCE MORE TAKES HOLD OF THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES STILL LOOK TO BE AROUND 10-20 DEGREES WARMER THAN
EXPECTED FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THE SOUTHWEST REGION FROM
CALIFORNIA TO TEXAS ARE EXPECTED TO TO REACH THE 80S AND 90S IN
THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST
CAN EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S TO UPPER 70S EXCEPT
FOR TOWNS IN COASTAL AREAS OR HIGH TERRAIN WHICH WILL LIKELY BE
COOLER. A DEVELOPING CYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL BRING ANOTHER CHILLY AIR MASS ACROSS THE MIDWEST
AND EAST COAST. EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST ON MONDAY AND BEGINNING TO FILTER EASTWARD BY
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
FOR THE WINTER SIDE, NORTHERN MAINE COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS AS A LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO
SUPPLY MOISTURE TODAY. MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL SEE RAIN TURN OVER
TO SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA, NORTHERN WISCONSIN, AND THE
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW PRESSURE.
THERE ARE MODERATE CHANCES FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 4-8
INCHES IN FAVORABLE LOCATIONS. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL MAY ALSO OCCUR
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
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