306
FXUS06 KWBC 141902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT MON APRIL 14 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 20 - 24 2025
THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY’S GEFS, ECMWF, AND CMCE DEPICTIONS OF
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
THE CMCE DIVERGES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES. THE MEAN
500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND DE-EMPHASIZES THE CANADIAN MODEL GIVEN ITS
DIVERGENT SOLUTION. THE RESULTANT PATTERN DEPICTS AMPLIFIED RIDGES OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND A WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE
WEST.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70%. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
RESULTS IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM WASHINGTON AND OREGON
EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS. FOR
ALASKA, EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE CANADA BORDER TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO A FAIRLY WET PATTERN EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MOST STRONGLY FAVORED (>60% CENTERED OVER ARKANSAS). CHANCES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FALL AWAY TO THE EAST AND WEST, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN, AS WELL AS ALONG MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FORECAST TOOLS GENERALLY
FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST WITH AMPLIFIED
RIDGING UPSTREAM. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA
BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN COAST, TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE MAINLAND AND CONVERSELY, BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR PORTIONS OF THE PANHANDLE. FORECAST TOOLS ALSO INDICATE
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII, PARTICULARLY FOR KAUAI, WHERE CHANCES
EXCEED 60%.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 28 2025
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND EVOLUTIONS, BUT THE CANADIAN CONTINUES TO DEVIATE FROM THE GEFS AND
ECWMF, DEPICTING POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CONUS RATHER THAN A WEAK
TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THE 500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND LOOKS VERY
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH BOTH THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
AND THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES ARE DEPICTED AS MUCH WEAKER THAN THE EARLY
PERIOD.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS ALMOST INDISTINGUISHABLE FROM THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WITH
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES (>50% CHANCE) EXTENDING UP INTO NEW ENGLAND AND THE
GREAT LAKES. A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS AND EXTENDING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND DESERT SOUTHWEST WHERE
TOOLS ARE MORE MIXED AND OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS. EASTERLY FLOW
PERSISTS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA, RESULTING IN NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BEING FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE STATE, WHILE A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES REMAINS OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA (AND ADJACENT AREAS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND) AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
LIKEWISE, THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY. CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
ARKLATEX REGION WHERE CHANCES TOP 50%. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
BE FAVORED ALONG THE WEST COAST, AND NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. PERSISTENT
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
MOST OF THE STATE, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PANHANDLE AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. HAWAII CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION, WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 20% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FROM THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19880408 - 20000325 - 20060424 - 19770410 - 20040329
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19880408 - 20000324 - 20040331 - 20060424 - 19530330
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 20 - 24 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON B B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B N NEVADA N N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 28 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B N OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N B IDAHO B N NEVADA N B
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING B A
UTAH N A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A N AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL B N
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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