947
FXUS06 KWBC 151902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE APRIL 15 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 25 2025
THERE IS REASONABLE AGREEMENT AMONG TODAY’S GEFS, ECMWF, AND CMCE DEPICTIONS OF
500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES DURING THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST PERIOD AND THE
CANADIAN HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE GEFS AND ECMWF, BUT THESE TWO
MODELS ARE NOT AS WELL-ALIGNED AS YESTERDAY. REGARDLESS, THE 500-HPA MANUAL
BLEND CONTINUES TO DEPICT AMPLIFIED RIDGES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEST.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70%. WITH MODELS FAVORING A WEAKER TROUGH OVER THE WEST A
SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS INTRODUCED TO MUCH OF THE
GREAT BASIN IN TODAY’S 6-10 DAY OUTLOOK. NORTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST RESULTS IN A TILT TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FROM
WASHINGTON AND OREGON EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST
FORECAST TOOLS. FOR ALASKA, EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE CANADA BORDER TILTS THE
ODDS TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE, WHILE
STRONG RIDGING OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
FAVORED FOR HAWAII, WITH PROBABILITIES INCREASING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.
THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO A FAIRLY WET PATTERN EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MOST STRONGLY FAVORED (>50% CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA). CHANCES
OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FALL AWAY TO THE EAST AND WEST, WITH NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT
BASIN, AS WELL AS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. FORECAST TOOLS
GENERALLY FAVOR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST WITH
AMPLIFIED RIDGING UPSTREAM. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
BERING SEA BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN ALASKAN COAST, TILTING THE
ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE, ESPECIALLY THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50%.. FORECAST TOOLS ALSO
INDICATE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON
AND AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 - 29 2025
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND EVOLUTION. THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CMCE ALL DEPICT A TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH AMERICA, BUT THE CANADIAN DEVIATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF, ERODING THE
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MORE QUICKLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS, WHILE WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHTS NOSE INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AND INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE EAST.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ALTHOUGH
PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY LOWER, LIKELY TO INCREASED ZONAL FLOW..
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND WEST INTO THE
GREAT BASIN, WITH ENHANCED PROBABILITIES (>50% CHANCE) FROM THE GULF COAST
NORTH INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER AND DOWN THE WEST COAST,
WHILE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARIZONA TILT WEAKLY TOWARDS BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES UNDER WEAK NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER
MAINLAND ALASKA, RESULTING IN NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED
FOR MOST OF THE STATE, WHILE A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
REMAINS OVER THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
LIKEWISE, THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA WHERE
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY. CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ARE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
ARKLATEX REGION WHERE CHANCES TOP 50%. BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO
BE FAVORED ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST, AND NEAR-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND THE GREAT
BASIN. PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE STATE, WITH NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS. HAWAII CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WEAK FORECAST ANOMALIES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19860407 - 20060423 - 20000326 - 19880408 - 20040328
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000325 - 20060423 - 19880410 - 20090327 - 19860407
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 21 - 25 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON B B OREGON N B NRN CALIF N B
SRN CALIF N N IDAHO N N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA B A E MONTANA B A WYOMING N A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA N A S DAKOTA N A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA N A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN N A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A A
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 23 - 29 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON N N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N A E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A N AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL B A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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