843
FXUS01 KWBC 161850
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
249 PM EDT WED APR 16 2025
VALID 00Z THU APR 17 2025 - 00Z SAT APR 19 2025
...A SPRING SNOWSTORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOWS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
TO CENTRAL ROCKIES...
...MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO
CENTRAL ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS,
WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PUSH EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI &
OHIO VALLEYS...
...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON TAP FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
48 OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH BIG TEMPERATURES CHANGES FROM
RECENT READINGS SET TO OCCUR FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROF OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL HELP PROPEL A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/NORTHERN ROCKIES REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. THIS
WILL BE SETTING THE STAGE FOR A SPRING SNOWSTORM ACROSS THE
ROCKIES OF MONTANA, WYOMING INTO COLORADO WHERE SNOW TOTALS IN THE
6 TO 12 INCH PLUS RANGE ARE LIKELY. THIS DEVELOPING SNOWSTORM
WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF RECENT MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTHERN TO CENTRAL
PLAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE
REPLACED BY MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINTER STORM WARNINGS, WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES AND WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT ACROSS
LARGE PORTIONS OF WESTERN TO SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL WYOMING. HOWEVER, THESE WARNINGS, ADVISORIES AND WATCHES
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS RELATIVELY LESS POPULATED AREAS OF THE LOWER
48, AFFECTING APPROPRIATELY 750,000 PEOPLE.
TO THE SOUTH OF THE WINTER WEATHER THREAT AREA, WINDY CONDITIONS
AHEAD OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED STRONG FRONT, COMBINED WITH DRY
WEATHER AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PRODUCE CRITICAL TO
EXTREME FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FROM
SOUTHEAST COLORADO, SOUTHWEST KANSAS, ACROSS ALL OF NEW MEXICO,
FAR SOUTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA, AFFECTING OVER 6
MILLION PEOPLE.
WHILE MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STRONG
COLD FRONT PRESSING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PLAINS,
MORE ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE MID TO UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE UPPER LAKES REGION FROM WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE EASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT. WHILE PRECIPITATION TOTALS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE VERY HEAVY ACROSS THESE REGIONS, AREAL AVERAGE TOTALS IN THE
.25-50"+ RANGE, THERE WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER TO
DEVELOP THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS THESE REGIONS, WITH LESSER THREATS FROM HIGH WINDS
AND TORNADOES.
BY FRIDAY EVENING, THE EMPHASIS FOR ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP MUCH FARTHER TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS
THE STRONG UPPER TROF BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERE WEATHER LATE THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
WHILE MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, RECENT BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION WILL
BE REPLACED BY MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREADING EASTWARD
LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND.
ORAVEC
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page