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FXUS06 KWBC 161902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 16 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26 2025
THE EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO TRACK AS GENERAL AGREEMENT CONTINUES
AMONG TODAY’S GEFS, ECMWF, AND CMCE DEPICTIONS OF 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES
DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARD TO THE STRENGTH OF
VARIOUS SYNOPTIC FEATURES, BUT REGARDLESS MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE GENERALLY
TRENDING IN THE SAME DIRECTION. THE 500-HPA MANUAL BLEND CONTINUES TO DEPICT
AMPLIFIED RIDGES OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC AND EASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND
A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEST.
AMPLIFIED RIDGING OVER THE EAST FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF
THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES, PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHERE
PROBABILITIES EXCEED 60%. WITH MODELS FAVORING WEAKENING NEGATIVE HEIGHT
ANOMALIES OVER THE WEST AND PERSISTENT BROAD SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE GREAT PLAINS, CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE SPREAD
WESTWARD FROM YESTERDAY’S OUTLOOK, WITH PROBABILITIES NOW EXCEEDING 50% FOR
MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST AND ALONG THE U.S.-CANADA BORDER,
UNDER WEAKNESSES IN THE BROAD RIDGING OVER NORTH AMERICA AND THE NORTH PACIFIC.
FOR ALASKA, EASTERLY FLOW ALONG THE CANADA BORDER TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE STATE, WHILE STRONG RIDGING OVER THE
NORTH PACIFIC FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE ALASKAN PENINSULA AND
THE ALEUTIANS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR HAWAII,
CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS.
THE TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO A FAIRLY WET PATTERN EAST
OF THE ROCKIES. MULTIPLE MODELS INDICATE PERIODS OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WHERE ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS MOST STRONGLY FAVORED (>50% CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN TEXAS).
CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FALL AWAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHEAST, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FAVORED OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN, AS WELL AS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. FORECAST TOOLS
GENERALLY FAVOR NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE WEST COAST
AND GREAT BASIN WITH AMPLIFIED RIDGING UPSTREAM. WEAK BUT PERSISTENT SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BERING SEA BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE SOUTHERN
ALASKAN COAST, TILTING THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE STATE, ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. FORECAST TOOLS ALSO
INDICATE ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII, CONSISTENT WITH THE HAWAII CON
AND AUTOBLEND.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AS THE PERIOD PROGRESSES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2025
SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN AND EVOLUTION. THE ECMWF, GEFS, AND CMCE ALL DEPICT A TRANSITION TO
MORE ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CONUS AND POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS MOST OF
NORTH AMERICA, BUT THE CANADIAN DEVIATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF, ERODING THE
WEAK TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST MORE QUICKLY THAN THE OTHER MODELS. THE
500-HPA MANUAL HEIGHT BLEND FEATURES WEAK POSITIVE HEIGHTS ACROSS MOST OF THE
CONUS, WHILE WEAK NEGATIVE HEIGHTS NOSE INTO CALIFORNIA FROM THE WEST AND INTO
MAINLAND ALASKA FROM THE EAST.
THE WEEK-2 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, WITH
ENHANCED ABOVE-NORMAL PROBABILITIES SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS RESULTING FROM STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. ABOVE-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND WEST INTO THE GREAT
BASIN, WITH ENHANCED PROBABILITIES (>60% CHANCE) FROM THE GULF COAST NORTH INTO
THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS. NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST UNDER WEAK
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHTS. EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS OVER MAINLAND ALASKA,
RESULTING IN NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES BEING FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE
STATE, WHILE A SLIGHT TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES REMAINS OVER THE
ALASKAN PENINSULA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
LIKEWISE, THE WEEK-2 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY
PERIOD. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED FROM THE ROCKIES
EASTWARD, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NEW ENGLAND WHERE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
MOST LIKELY. CHANCES OF ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE ENHANCED OVER THE GREAT
PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, PARTICULARLY FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE CHANCES TOP 50%. NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WEST COAST, AS WELL AS FOR MUCH OF THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST, CONSISTENT WITH MOST FORECAST TOOLS. PERSISTENT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA, WITH
NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR PORTIONS OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS.
HAWAII CONTINUES TO TILT TOWARDS ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION, CONSISTENT WITH
THE HAWAII CON.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOUT AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE FORECAST TOOLS WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION, OFFSET BY DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WEAK FORECAST ANOMALIES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON
APRIL 17.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000329 - 19900403 - 19700327 - 19510411 - 20020328
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
20000401 - 19700326 - 19990420 - 19730425 - 19860408
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 22 - 26 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N
W MONTANA N N E MONTANA N A WYOMING A A
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A N OHIO A N KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A N NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A A DELAWARE A A VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR APR 24 - 30 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N N COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO A A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA A A
N TEXAS A A S TEXAS A A W TEXAS A A
MINNESOTA A A IOWA A A MISSOURI A A
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A A
ILLINOIS A A MISSISSIPPI A A MICHIGAN A A
INDIANA A A OHIO A A KENTUCKY A A
TENNESSEE A A ALABAMA A A NEW YORK A N
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N
PENN A A NEW JERSEY A N W VIRGINIA A A
MARYLAND A N DELAWARE A N VIRGINIA A A
N CAROLINA A A S CAROLINA A A GEORGIA A A
FL PNHDL A A FL PENIN A A AK N SLOPE B A
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN B A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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