575
FXUS01 KWBC 170808
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
408 AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
VALID 12Z THU APR 17 2025 - 12Z SAT APR 19 2025
...SPRING SNOWSTORM TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
THE ROCKIES...
...MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, WHILE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE PUSH EAST INTO THE MISSISSIPPI & OHIO
VALLEYS...
...CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE WEATHER THREAT FOR THE CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
...SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREATEN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
U.S. LATE THIS WEEK...
AN AMPLIFYING UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR
MUCH OF THE IMPACTFUL WEATHER THAT OCCURS ACROSS THE LOWER 48 OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A POTENT COLD FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEST AND CENTRAL U.S. WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES. HEAVY SNOW FOCUSES OVER
SOUTHERN-CENTRAL MONTANA AND MUCH OF WYOMING TODAY BEFORE SHIFTING
SOUTH INTO THE COLORADO ROCKIES ON FRIDAY. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2 FEET (ISOLATED 3 FEET) ARE PROBABLE OVER
WYOMING WHILE AREAS IN COLORADO COULD PICKUP ANYWHERE BETWEEN 6-12
INCHES. FRIGID AIR DRIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN
AND HIGH PLAINS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
LIKELY TO BE 15-30 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE IN MANY OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY.
A DEVELOPING CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS IS EXPECTED TO
GENERATE ENOUGH WINDS AND DRY AIR ADVECTION AT THE SURFACE TO
SUPPORT AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK (LEVEL 3/3) OF FIRE WEATHER
OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND NEW MEXICO FOR TODAY. A BROADER
CRITICAL RISK AREA STRETCHES FARTHER INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTREME RISK DIMINISHES ON FRIDAY ONCE THE COLD
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION ARRIVE.
THE EASTERN FLANK OF THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL U.S.
BEGINNING TODAY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM PORTIONS
OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA FOR TODAY. LARGE TO VERY
LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY RISKS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS THREAT, ACCORDING TO SPC. A BROADER SLIGHT
RISK AREA STRETCHES FROM NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY, WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE RAIN RATES HIGH ENOUGH TO
CREATE FLASH FLOODING OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (AT
LEAST 15% CHANCE) IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHWESTERN/CENTRAL MISSOURI ON FRIDAY. A CENTRAL
TO EASTERN U.S. RIDGE WILL PROMOTE WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,
FOLLOWED BY THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND.
KEBEDE
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