982
FXHW40 KWBC 171230
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830AM EDT THU APR 17 2025
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MAY 2025
SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ABOUT +1.0 TO +2.0 DEGREES CELSIUS (C)
WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND) DURING THE PREVIOUS WEEK.
FOR JANUARY THROUGH MARCH 2025, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
LIHUE AIRPORT 3.78 INCHES (31 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HONOLULU AIRPORT 7.34 INCHES (120 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
KAHULUI AIRPORT 5.01 INCHES (71 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
HILO AIRPORT 16.88 INCHES (55 PERCENT OF AVERAGE)
MOST CLIMATE MODELS OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) AND THE
INTERNATIONAL MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (IMME/C3S) FAVOR POSITIVE SST ANOMALIES
AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN MAY 2025. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED
FOR ALL OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS (KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND HAWAII OR THE BIG
ISLAND) FOR MAY, 2025.
FOR THE MAY 2025 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, MOST MODELS OF THE NMME AND C3S PREDICT
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU, WHILE EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR
ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND. WEAK PROBABILITIES FAVORING ABOVE OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE
INDICATED IN THE MAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK, SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL
FORECASTS.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO A70 74.0 0.5 EC 4.1 7.4 8.7
KAHULUI A70 75.8 0.6 EC 0.2 0.5 0.8
HONOLULU A70 78.0 0.6 A40 0.2 0.4 0.8
LIHUE A70 75.8 0.6 A40 1.3 1.5 2.3
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID MJJ 2025 - MJJ 2026
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF THE LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE
CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS) AND ALASKA FOR A DESCRIPTION OF THE EL NINO SOUTHERN
OSCILLATION (ENSO) OUTLOOK AND OTHER CLIMATE CONDITIONS RELEVANT TO THE
SEASONAL OUTLOOK. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE PACIFIC OCEAN.
EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE NEAR-TO-BELOW AVERAGE IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN AND ARE ABOVE-AVERAGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
NEAR-TO-BELOW-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL IN THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN, WHILE ABOVE-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE WESTERN
PACIFIC AND IN A SHALLOW LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
LOW-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE EASTERLY OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL EQUATORIAL PACIFIC
OCEAN. UPPER-LEVEL WIND ANOMALIES WERE WESTERLY OVER THE CENTRAL EQUATORIAL
PACIFIC OCEAN. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE
DATE LINE AND WESTERN PACIFIC. ENHANCED CONVECTION AND PRECIPITATION WAS
ENHANCED NEAR INDONESIA. ENSO-NEUTRAL IS FAVORED DURING THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE
SUMMER, WITH A GREATER THAN 50% CHANCE THROUGH AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER 2025.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL OUTLOOK FOR KAUAI, OAHU, MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND FOR MJJ
(MAY-JUNE-JULY) THROUGH SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER-NOVEMBER (SON) 2025, SUPPORTED BY
NEARLY ALL DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NMME AND C3S, AS WELL AS DECADAL
TIMESCALE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. DUE TO WEAKENING SIGNALS IN FORECAST GUIDANCE AT
LONGER LEADS, EC FOR ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR
HAWAII BEGINNING IN OND (OCTOBER-NOVEMBER-DECEMBER) 2025 AND EXTENDING THROUGH
LONGER LEADS.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST ACROSS KAUAI
AND OAHU FROM MJJ TO ASO (AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER) 2025, AND OVER MAUI FROM
MJJ TO JJA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS. BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM JJA TO ASO. DUE TO WEAKER
SIGNALS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS FROM DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS,
EC IS INDICATED FOR EQUAL CHANCES OF ABOVE, NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR KAUAI AND OAHU BEGINNING IN SON 2025, FOR MAUI IN JAS, AND THE BIG ISLAND
BEYOND ASO AND EXTENDING THROUGH LONGER LEADS.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2025 A70 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
JJA 2025 A70 75.2 0.4 B40 19.4 27.2 31.4
JAS 2025 A70 76.1 0.4 B40 25.2 28.6 33.4
ASO 2025 A60 76.4 0.4 B40 26.1 28.8 33.3
SON 2025 A50 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8
OND 2025 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0
NDJ 2025 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0
DJF 2026 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3
JFM 2026 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5
FMA 2026 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5
MAM 2026 EC 72.0 0.5 EC 22.5 28.4 34.0
AMJ 2026 EC 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0
MJJ 2026 EC 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2025 A70 76.0 0.5 A40 0.7 1.1 1.8
JJA 2025 A70 77.7 0.4 A40 0.7 1.1 1.5
JAS 2025 A70 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6
ASO 2025 A70 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5
SON 2025 A60 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1
NDJ 2025 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5
DJF 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7
JFM 2026 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2
FMA 2026 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4
MAM 2026 EC 73.0 0.4 EC 2.5 3.5 4.6
AMJ 2026 EC 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2
MJJ 2026 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2025 A70 78.2 0.4 A50 0.8 1.4 1.6
JJA 2025 A70 79.9 0.4 A50 0.7 0.8 1.3
JAS 2025 A70 81.3 0.4 A40 1.0 1.4 1.7
ASO 2025 A70 81.7 0.4 A40 1.6 2.4 3.1
SON 2025 A60 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6
OND 2025 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5
NDJ 2025 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8
DJF 2026 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6
JFM 2026 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8
FMA 2026 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7
MAM 2026 EC 74.8 0.4 EC 1.8 2.6 3.0
AMJ 2026 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8
MJJ 2026 EC 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
MJJ 2025 A70 76.0 0.5 A50 4.9 5.4 5.9
JJA 2025 A70 77.7 0.4 A50 4.4 5.3 6.9
JAS 2025 A70 79.0 0.3 A40 5.3 6.1 7.8
ASO 2025 A70 79.4 0.3 A40 6.2 7.9 8.4
SON 2025 A60 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2
OND 2025 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6
NDJ 2025 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9
DJF 2026 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0
JFM 2026 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8
FMA 2026 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9
MAM 2026 EC 72.8 0.5 EC 5.3 6.6 8.0
AMJ 2026 EC 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0
MJJ 2026 EC 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
ANOMALIES ARE BASED ON THE 1991-2020 MEANS.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATED EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE PREDICTED PARAMETER WILL
FALL INTO ANY ONE OF THE THREE CATEGORIES, WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIC IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULATE TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE NORMAL OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE ABOVE NORMAL CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW NORMAL
CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OR TOTAL
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THE VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD, OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO, THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCES OF THE NEW SET NET MONTH, ON THU MAY 15, 2025.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page