372
FXUS01 KWBC 210758
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT MON APR 21 2025
VALID 12Z MON APR 21 2025 - 12Z WED APR 23 2025
...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON
MONDAY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
ON MONDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC COAST WESTWARD INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY FROM THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWESTWARD TO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/WESTERN GULF COAST. AN AREA OF STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE EASTERN
OHIO VALLEY. THEREFORE, THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE EASTERN OHIO VALLEY. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
A SECOND AREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS
ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FROM THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON MONDAY, LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREAS
ADJACENT TO THE WESTERN END OF LAKE SUPERIOR ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
ON TUESDAY, AS THE WESTERN END OF THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC, THE EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL
1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY, AND A DRYLINE WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED
A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL PLAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
FURTHER, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
MEANWHILE, ON MONDAY, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION WILL DEVELOP A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN THAT WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY TUESDAY EVENING AND
THEN DISSIPATE. THE ENERGY WILL PRODUCE RAIN AND HIGHEST-ELEVATION
SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION AND THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
FURTHERMORE, ON MONDAY, A THIRD FRONT MOVING SOUTH OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONSOLIDATE WITH THE DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
THEN A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. OVERNIGHT MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL DEVELOP SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE
UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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