807
FXUS01 KWBC 220717
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
317 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2025
VALID 12Z TUE APR 22 2025 - 12Z THU APR 24 2025
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...
ON TUESDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE
EASTWARD TO THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL
PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES BY TUESDAY EVENING AND DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY. ALSO, ON TUESDAY, A SECOND FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CENTRAL CANADA WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THEN WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY THURSDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS, INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
DRYLINE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL
PLAINS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/CENTRAL
PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
FURTHERMORE, THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE,
THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
A THIRD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
THEN SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL MOVE EASTWARD OFF THE NORTHEAST/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY OVERNIGHT TUESDAY. THE WESTERN END OF THE BOUNDARY WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
ON TUESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST. IN ADDITION, STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
AND A SECOND AREA OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND A MINIMAL THREAT OF TORNADOES.
ON WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OVER PARTS OF THE UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WESTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN. MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER THE PLAINS AS SHOWERS AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC
HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH
HEAVY RAIN.
FURTHERMORE, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY
ALONG AND NEAR THE OLD BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST/SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL
TRIGGER RAIN AND HIGHEST-ELEVATION SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE AREA ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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