988
FXUS01 KWBC 230711
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
311 AM EDT WED APR 23 2025
VALID 12Z WED APR 23 2025 - 12Z FRI APR 25 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE /LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
NORTHEAST, WESTWARD TO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND
SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY FRIDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION, MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS, INTERSECTING THE BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
DRYLINE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST OF
THE DRYLINE. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL
2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. MOREOVER, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, INTO THE
GREAT LAKES.
FURTHERMORE, A SECOND FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC
WESTWARD TO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA
FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS. THE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE
ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH
FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY
RAIN.
ON THURSDAY, STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EASTWARD
OF THE DRYLINE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS, HAIL, AND AN ISOLATED THREAT OF TORNADOES. IN ADDITION,
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN
BOUNDARY FROM THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST TO THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE /LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
MIDDLE /LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE. FURTHERMORE, RAIN AND
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE OHIO
AS THE FRONT MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE, UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
NORTH/CENTRAL PLAINS WILL TRIGGER RAIN AND HIGHEST-ELEVATION SNOW
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, EASTERN GREAT
BASIN, AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY. THE ENERGY MOVES
EASTWARD ON THURSDAY, PRODUCING RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
SCATTERED RAIN AND HIGHEST ELEVATIONS NOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON THURSDAY. LASTLY, UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS
WILL TRIGGER LIGHT RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA ON THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
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