240
FXUS01 KWBC 252001
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 PM EDT FRI APR 25 2025
VALID 00Z SAT APR 26 2025 - 00Z MON APR 28 2025
...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM THE
MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST TODAY TO THE EAST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...
...SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WITH A SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THREAT...
...MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREADING ACROSS CALIFORNIA
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
EXPANDING FROM THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...
AN ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN IS SETTING UP FOR LARGE PORTIONS
OF THE U.S. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE/ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND TO THE EAST COAST BY SATURDAY. MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL SUPPORT SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE OHIO/TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. STORMS WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED FOR THE NORTHEAST AND
MORE SCATTERED STORMS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS/APPALACHIANS. STORMS WILL COME TO AN END
FOR MOST BY SATURDAY EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT CLEARS THE COAST,
THOUGH STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER INTO SUNDAY PARTICULARLY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS IN THE
REGION. INITIAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG A DRYLINE THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. VERY
STRONG INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER, WITH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUING AN
ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) FOR THE SOUTHERN
HIGH PLAINS. LARGE TO GIANT HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW
TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MOVE GENERALLY
PARALLEL TO THE COLLECTIVELY REINFORCED FRONTAL BOUNDARY, BRINGING
AN INCREASING HEAVY RAIN THREAT. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IS IN PLACE ALONG THE BOUNDARY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/NORTHWEST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AS
VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY LEAD TO SEVERAL INCHES OF RAINFALL AND
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. OVERNIGHT STORMS
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY AS WELL AS THE
EXPECTATION OF A RENEWED ROUND OF STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE AND ALONG THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOCUSED OVER PORTIONS THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS. STORM/HEAVY
RAINFALL CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE SCATTERED ON SUNDAY
AS THE BOUNDARY FINALLY LIFTS NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HOWEVER, MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING LOOK TO BE A THREAT
AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT.
A DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN U.S. WILL BRING
AN EXPANDING AREA OF UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE
RAINFALL WILL SHIFT EASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA AND OREGON ON
SATURDAY INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES ON SUNDAY.
LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED FLOODING
CONCERNS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL, THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
BRING SOME SNOWFALL FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS,
PARTICULARLY FOR THE SIERRA NEVADA SATURDAY AND AREAL RANGES OF
THE GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO SUNDAY. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE SIERRA FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 3-6",
LOCALLY HIGHER. SOME SNOW MAY MIX IN FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
GREAT BASIN BY LATER SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING, THOUGH ANY
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK TO REMAIN LIMITED.
THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LEAD TO SOME VARYING AND NOTABLY
ABOVE/BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER DAY
OF ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC SATURDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY, WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. A COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE
DAY ACROSS THE MIDWEST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON
SATURDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A BIT OF A WARM UP TO AVERAGE
CONDITIONS ON SUNDAY. MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS ARE FORECAST ACROSS
THE ROCKIES AND WILL EXPAND INTO THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. THE DEEP
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING OVER THE WEST WILL BRING MUCH BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AND EXPAND MORE BROADLY INTO
THE GREAT BASIN/SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY.
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