783
FXUS01 KWBC 270823
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
VALID 12Z SUN APR 27 2025 - 12Z TUE APR 29 2025
...WET SNOW ALONG THE SIERRA NEVADA, PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY, AND THEN THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT EXPECTED TO RAISE CONCERN OF
FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA
TODAY...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES,
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/PLAINS MONDAY...
...MUCH BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ACROSS CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT
BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST WITH MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
SPREADING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST/SOUTHEAST...
OUR ONGOING ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL
BRING INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE
COUNTRY AS WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK. FIRST OF ALL, A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN ITS FORWARD MOTION ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND THIS MORNING. COLDER AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SLOWLY-DEPARTING SYSTEM COULD CHANGE THE RAIN TO WET SNOW FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATION IN THE INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TODAY. ALL PRECIPITATION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES FARTHER AWAY INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.
MEANWHILE,
A MORE COMPACT AND ENERGETIC UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVING ONSHORE INTO
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING WILL KICK THE ENTIRE SYSTEM INLAND,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE
SIERRA NEVADA FOLLOWED BY MIXED RAIN/SNOW ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TODAY. BY MONDAY, THE UPPER LOW WILL HEAD TOWARD THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH A COLD FRONT DIPPING SOUTH FROM
CANADA INTO MONTANA. THIS INTERACTION WILL SET OFF A PERIOD OF
SNOW MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN MONTANA INTO NORTHERN WYOMING FROM
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WHERE AS MUCH AS 6-12" OF ACCUMULATIONS
CAN BE EXPECTED. ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
HIGHER ELEVATIONS BUT HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO EXPECTED TO FALL OVER
AREAS OF SLIGHTLY LOWER ELEVATIONS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY, LEADING TO
CONCERN OF SNOWMELT AND FLOODING FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS OF MONTANA.
FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING, AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
RESULT IN A BLOSSOMING AREA OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING, SPREADING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
ON MONDAY. A COLD NORTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY
FROM MONTANA TO NORTH DAKOTA WHILE A WARM AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WIND
STRENGTHENS THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
MUCH INCREASED TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE INTENSIFYING SYSTEM AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER INDICATES A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO EXTEND FROM NORTHERN TEXAS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS,
INCREASING TO A MODERATE RISK ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHERE AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES,
IS EXPECTED. A BROADER ENHANCED RISK EXTENDS INTO THE
MID-MISSOURI VALLEY WHERE VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. BY
TUESDAY MORNING, THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO EXIT THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. COLDER AIR SURGING SOUTH FROM CANADA COULD
CHANGE THE RAIN TO WET SNOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, VERY DRY CONDITIONS, WARM TEMPERATURES, AND STRONG,
GUSTY WINDS HAVE PROMPTED CONCERN OF CRITICAL TO EXTREME FIRE
WEATHER DANGER FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA
AND FAR WESTERN TEXAS. THE DEEP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. AS WELL AS A CORRESPONDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
INTENSIFYING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. IS LEADING TO AN
INCREASING DICHOTOMY IN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE PLAINS TODAY WILL EXPAND
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY, WITH THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ALSO SEEING ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS.
CALIFORNIA, THE GREAT BASIN, AND THE SOUTHWEST WILL SEE ANOTHER
DAY OF WELL BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS MODERATE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON MONDAY. AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE.
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