028
FXUS01 KWBC 272000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT SUN APR 27 2025
VALID 00Z MON APR 28 2025 - 00Z WED APR 30 2025
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SNOWMELT BRING FLOODING CONCERNS TO PORTIONS
OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA TODAY...
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES,
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/PLAINS MONDAY...
...THREAT OF POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING RETURNS TO
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY...
...WARM, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS TO START THE WEEK FOR MUCH
OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S....
OUR ONGOING SPRING WEATHER PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL BRING
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER INTO THE MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AS
WE HEAD INTO THE NEW WEEK. A DEEP, UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOL
CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. ONGOING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND CENTRAL GREAT BASIN SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF THROUGH
TONIGHT AND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. SOME SNOW MAY MIX
IN WITH THE SHOWERS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS, THOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE
NOT EXPECTED. FURTHER EAST, MOIST, SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS AS WELL AS INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE
UPPER-TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WILL BRING THE RISK
OF SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ALONG THE HIGH
PLAINS. STRONG CAPE SUPPORTED BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AS
WELL AS SUFFICIENT UPPER- AND LOW-LEVEL SHEAR GIVEN STRONG WIND
FIELDS WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SOME
SEVERE WEATHER. A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR THE CHANCE OF VERY LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF MONTANA HAVE PROMPTED A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL RATES SUPPORTED BY THE VERY MOIST, UPSLOPE FLOW IN
COMBINATION WITH SNOWMELT OVER TERRAIN SENSITIVE AREAS, INCLUDING
BURN SCARS, MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. ADDITIONAL, MORE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS GROW
UPSCALE INTO A COMPLEX AND MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE POTENT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BRING
HEAVY SNOW TO HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN MONTANA AND
NORTHERN WYOMING, WITH WINTER WEATHER-RELATED ADVISORIES IN PLACE
FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS AS MUCH AS 1-3 FEET.
THEN, ON MONDAY, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS FURTHER EASTWARD
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST, ANOTHER DAY OF
MOIST RETURN FLOW AS WELL AS THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS WILL
SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF WIDESPREAD, INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS AND A
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG TORNADOES, VERY LARGE HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ENHANCED
RISK (LEVEL 3/5) EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY WITH A SLIGHT RISK
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS ADDITIONAL STORMS
ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASINGLY MORE ISOLATED BUT
STILL NOTABLE THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A
FEW TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL. ON TUESDAY, THE COLD
FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLOW AND STALL WITH SOUTHWESTWARD EXTEND OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS LEADING UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD. REPETITIVE ROUNDS OF STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE
STALLING BOUNDARY OVER AN ALREADY SENSITIVE REGION GIVEN RECENT
RAINFALL HAS RESULTED IN A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
(LEVEL 3/4) FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
BROADER SLIGHT RISK EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY
FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. MORE
GENERALLY, SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE
OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INCLUDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE FRONT AS SOME STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, VERY DRY CONDITIONS AS WELL STRONG, GUSTY WINDS HAVE
PROMPTED AN EXTREMELY CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/3)
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY, WITH ELEVATED CONDITIONS (LEVEL 1/3)
REMAINING IN PLACE MONDAY. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST WILL BRING SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON MONDAY. A PACIFIC SYSTEM WILL BRING
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING AND THEN INLAND THROUGH THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S WILL BE
COMMON, INCLUDING FOR MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS LIKE THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHEAST. AFTER A COOL, WELL BELOW AVERAGE WEEKEND, TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO RETURN BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE OVER THE WEST MONDAY
AND ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE
60S AND 70S, WITH 80S INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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