730
FXUS01 KWBC 281901
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
301 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
VALID 00Z TUE APR 29 2025 - 00Z THU MAY 01 2025
...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER, INCLUDING STRONG TORNADOES,
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING,
FOLLOWED BY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY...
...POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING INCREASING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINNING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
INTO WEDNESDAY...
...ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH SPREADS EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL U.S. TO
THE EASTERN U.S. HEADING INTO MIDWEEK...
THE CENTER OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON, BRINGING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING TO MUCH OF THE REGION. ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM, BUILDING INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH VIGOROUS DYNAMICS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HEADING INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 4/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER PORTIONS OF
MINNESOTA, WISCONSIN, AND IOWA WHERE STRONG TORNADOES, VERY LARGE
HAIL, AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH AS WELL, AND AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5)
AND A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) SURROUNDS THE MODERATE RISK AND
EXTENDS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AHEAD OF A TRAILING COLD FRONT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
WHERE STORMS REPEATEDLY TRAIN OVER THE SAME AREAS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS HEADING INTO TUESDAY. SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF THE STALLING BOUNDARY,
BRINGING EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN. GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED
GROUNDS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL, AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS, SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI, CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN TEXAS ON TUESDAY. NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE BY LATER ON TUESDAY SOME
OF WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS ALSO ON THE TABLE ON TUESDAY, THIS TIME STRETCHING FROM
THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS, ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
TORNADO OR TWO. ON WEDNESDAY, THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN
AND FLASH FLOODING REMAINS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND EXPANDS INTO THE WESTERN OZARKS OF ARKANSAS. ANOTHER
MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) HIGHLIGHTS THE CONCERN FOR NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO REPEATED TRAINING OF STRONG,
MOISTURE-LADEN THUNDERSTORMS.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH TO MUCH
OF THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
WILL BE COMMON, INCLUDING FOR MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS LIKE THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO RETURN BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE OVER THE WEST INTO TUESDAY,
WITH HIGHS GENERALLY RANGING IN THE 60S AND 70S, WITH 80S INTO THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST. OVERALL NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE FOR
THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING
FOR MUCH OF THE EAST. THE EXCEPTIONS TO THE WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTERIOR NORTHEAST.
MILLER
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