012
FOUS30 KWBC 290051
QPFERD
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
851 PM EDT MON APR 28 2025
DAY 1
VALID 01Z TUE APR 29 2025 - 12Z TUE APR 29 2025
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES...
01Z UPDATE...
MAINTAINED THE INHERITED SLIGHT RISK AREA OVER THE SOUTH PLAINS
WHERE CONVECTION WAS STILL GROWING UPSCALE THIS EVENING...BUT
INTRODUCED TWO SMALL BUT TARGETED SLIGHT RISK AREAS. ONE OF THE
AREAS WAS FROM NORTHERN IOWA INTO SOUTHWESTERN WISCONSIN WHERE THE
TRAILING END OF A LINE OF CONVECTION WAS BEGINNING TO SLOW FORWARD
SPEED WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINE REMAINED PROGRESSIVE.
INCREASING SPEEDS OF THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE UPON ENCOUNTERING THE
FRONT. THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE FAIRLY SHORT LIVED BEFORE THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. REFER TO MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION
DISCUSSION 191 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS. A SECOND TARGETED SLIGHT
RISK WAS INTRODUCED MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS WHERE CONVECTION
HAS GROWN INTO A LINE OF STORMS ALIGNED WITH THE SAME ORIENTATION
AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. THIS HAS ALREADY LED TO INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND THE EXPECTATION IS
FOR CONTINUED TRAINING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS GIVEN THE
QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARIES THAT THE STORMS HAVE FOCUSED UPON.
REFER TO MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 192 FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS HERE.
16Z UPDATE...FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS...
A FEW 12Z CAMS SUGGEST A STRONG CLUSTER/FEW SUPER-CELLS THAT WILL
BE CAPABLE OF INTENSE HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS
OF KS/OK INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
REGION, HIGHLIGHTED BY NASA SPORT 0-40CM SATURATION RATIOS OVER
70-80% AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE 90-95% PERCENTILES SUGGEST
LITTLE INFILTRATION IS EXPECTED EVEN IN RURAL LOCATIONS. THERE
REMAINS SUFFICIENT UNCERTAINTY TO THE PRECISE LATITUDE OF THESE
INDIVIDUAL CELLS OR SMALL CLUSTERS TO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE. 12Z
HREF PROBABILITY HAVE INCREASED ACROSS THE MOST SATURATED AREAS
WITH GREATEST 1" AND 2" PER HOUR AND 3-HOUR PERIODS AND NOW AS HIGH
AS 30% ACROSS THE MOST SATURATED AREAS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA. IN
COORDINATION WITH LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES, THIS IS SUFFICIENT
HIGHLIGHT A SMALL UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK MAINLY ALONG THE THE RED
RIVER INTO CENTRAL OK WHERE BOTH METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY OVERLAP
THE MOST.
GALLINA
~~~~PRIOR DISCUSSIONS~~~~
..NORTHERN PLAINS & UPPER MIDWEST
THE PERIOD IN QUESTION WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ON THE RAINFALL FRONT, BUT
A FEW KEY PIECES WILL BE MISSING, RELEGATING FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS
CLOSER TO THE MRGL RISK CATEGORY AS INHERITED FROM THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE. UPPER LEVEL PROGRESSION FROM THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST THROUGH
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL EXHIBIT A DECAYING MID TO
UPPER LEVEL STRUCTURE OF A CLOSED ULL OUT WEST WITH A MORE SHEARED,
PROGRESSIVE PIECES EJECTING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AND PROPAGATING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH MN AND NORTHERN WI. THE EVOLUTION IS SUCH THAT
A REASONABLE UPPER FORCING PATTERN WILL MATERIALIZE WITH SCATTERED
TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE INITIATION LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OF A BROAD
DIFFLUENT AXIS SITUATED FROM THE FRONT RANGE THROUGH THE UPPER
MIDWEST. INSTABILITY ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE WILL
BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THE MEAN TROUGH WITH AMPLE MID-LEVEL
PERTURBATIONS EJECTING INTO THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS DURING
THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. TO ROUND OFF THE SETUP, A BUDDING
140-150KT JET STREAK WILL BE ORIENTED OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL CANADA
PROVIDING A SOLID RER DYNAMIC SUITABLE FOR MAINTAINING A MORE
ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION ELEMENT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.
DESPITE THE ABOVE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTIVE PROSPECTS, THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN THE PROCESS OF BREAKING DOWN AS THE UPPER LOW OUT WEST BECOMES
A MORE OPEN WAVE WITH THE PRIMARY BULK OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY QUICKLY
EJECTING NORTHEAST WITH A TEXTBOOK STRONG PVA TO NVA SIGNATURE AS
THE ENERGY VACATES OVER THE NORTHERN LAKES. THIS SETUP HAS SHIFTED
TO A VERY FRONT LOADED CONVECTIVE SCHEME OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
QUICKLY USHERING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON PERIODS. BY THE EVENING, REMNANT CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE, EVENTUALLY MOVING OUT
OF THE PRIMARY AREA OF INTEREST AFTER NIGHTFALL LEADING TO A
DIMINISHED THREAT FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST CYCLE.
00Z HREF EAS PROBS REMAIN PRETTY ELEVATED (50-80%) FOR AT LEAST 1"
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ND THROUGH NORTHERN MN, BUT A SHARP
DECLINE IN PROBS FOR >2" LEADING THE CASE FOR MORE ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS IN THE GIVEN PATTERN. THERE
ARE SOME RESPECTABLE PROBABILITIES IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD SCHEME FOR
>2" WITHIN THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BACK OVER THE THE DAKOTAS (50-80%),
BUT AGAIN A SHARP DECLINE ONCE INTO THE >3" FIELDS LIMITING THE
UPPER BOUNDS OF THE POTENTIAL. A FEW AREAS MAY SEE BETWEEN 3-5" AT
THE PEAK, BUT THOSE WILL LIKELY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN FOR AN AREA
THAT IS ACTUALLY IN A LOW-END DROUGHT OVERALL. CONSIDERING THE SOIL
TYPE AND ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE REGION, THE INHERITED MRGL
WAS MAINTAINED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE RISK AREA OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A BROAD WARM-
SECTOR ENVIRONMENT POSITIONED BETWEEN A VACATED WARM FRONT PRESSING
NORTH THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SECONDARY COLD FORECAST TO PLUNGE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY THE END OF
THE FORECAST CYCLE. A FAIRLY MERIDIONAL UPPER PATTERN WILL END UP
BEING A KEY FACTOR IN THE EVENTUAL EJECTION OF STRONGER SHORTWAVES
OUT OF CHIHUAHUA, MX, BARRELING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
AND EAST OF A DRY LINE SITUATED OVER WEST TX. THE COMBINATION OF
RELEVANT BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY POSITIONED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL U.S. COUPLED WITH FAVORED REGIONAL ASCENT AND
THERMODYNAMICS WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF LATE-AFTERNOON AND EVENING
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD PROSPECTS.
RECENT HEAVY RAIN EPISODES HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO AN ELEVATED SOIL
MOISTURE PRESENCE FROM THE RED RIVER BASIN UP THROUGH MUCH OF OK
INTO SOUTHEAST KS, AND MO. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2-3" IN A SHORT
TIME FRAME WILL BE CAPABLE OF CAUSING FLASH FLOODING WITHIN THE
BOUNDS OF THOSE AREAS THAT EXHIBIT THOSE MOIST TOP-LAYER SOILS
SINCE THE TIME FRAME FOR RECOVERY WILL HAVE BEEN SHORT. 00Z HREF
NEIGHBORHOOD PROBS FOR >1" ARE RESPECTABLE (50-70%) WITHIN PORTIONS
OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH THE FOCUS GENERALLY OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL OK, CONCHO VALLEY, AND WESTERN ROLLING PLAINS OF WEST
TX. PROBABILITIES FOR >2" ARE VERY LOW LEAVING THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING FAIRLY CONDITIONAL AND LIKELY MORE RESERVED FOR MORE
SENSITIVE AREAS WITHIN URBANIZED ZONES AND AREAS MORE SUSCEPTIBLE
DUE TO LOW-WATER CROSSINGS.
KLEEBAUER
DAY 2
VALID 12Z TUE APR 29 2025 - 12Z WED APR 30 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MISSOURI VALLEY...
NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS, SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT, ARE
BECOMING MORE LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON D2.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE INGREDIENTS THAT WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF AN IMPRESSIVE RAINFALL EVENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA ON TUESDAY, AND POTENTIALLY AS FAR NORTHEAST AS
MISSOURI, ILLINOIS, INDIANA, AND KENTUCKY. THE DRIVER OF THIS EVENT
WILL BE AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH REFLECTED BY A MID-LEVEL LOW CLOSING
OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE CONTINUES
TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE SPEED AND PLACEMENT OF THIS
DEVELOPMENT, THE DETERMINISTIC GLOBAL MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED
DEEPER WITH THIS 500MB HEIGHTS OVER AZ/NM BY 00Z WEDNESDAY, LENDING
SUPPORT TO GREATER AMPLIFICATION OF THIS PATTERN. AS THIS LOW
CLOSES OFF, DOWNSTREAM ASCENT WILL BEGIN TO INTENSIFY THROUGH
700-500MB DIVERGENCE, AND INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS, ESPECIALLY LATER
D2 AS THE CLOSED LOW BEGINS TO PIVOT MORE RAPIDLY TO THE EAST.
OVERLAPPING THIS ASCENT, SECONDARY JET STREAK DEVELOPMENT EMERGING
FROM MEXICO WILL LIFT MERIDIONALLY INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AND AS
SOME INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS OCCUR,
IMPRESSIVE UPPER DIFFLUENCE WILL FOCUS FROM TEXAS INTO THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, LEADING TO EVEN MORE PRONOUNCED ASCENT ON D2.
AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS, BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT INTENSIFYING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW OUT OF THE GULF WILL IMPINGE THIS MOVEMENT, LEADING TO
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT MUCH OF TUESDAY ALIGNED FROM THE ROLLING
PLAINS OF TEXAS E/NE TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL OF MISSOURI. THE COMBINED
ASCENT OF THE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FRONT AND THE UPPER
LEVEL SYNOPTICS WILL RESULT IN IMPRESSIVE AND WIDESPREAD LIFT, INTO
WHICH SPOKES OF VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND THE TROUGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL LIFT PERIODICALLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS PRONOUNCED ASCENT WILL ACT UPON A REGION CHARACTERIZED BY
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS TO SUPPORT ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. PWS
AS PROGGED BY THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE MAY EXCEED THE 97TH PERCENTILE,
WHICH WILL OVERLAP WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2500 J/KG TO PROVIDE FUEL
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AS SHOWN BY
AVAILABLE SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY FROM 12Z HIGH-RES CAMS, WITH
TRAINING FROM WSW TO ENE LIKELY ON MEAN WINDS OF 20-30 KTS ALIGNED
TO THE IMPRESSIVE INSTABILITY GRADIENT. WHILE STORMS MAY BE
PROGRESSIVE, MULTIPLE ROUNDS ARE EXPECTED, AND CORFIDI VECTORS
ALIGNED WELL TO THE RIGHT OF THE MEAN FLOW INDICATE THAT SHORT TERM
TRAINING OF CLUSTERS IS LIKELY.
RAINFALL RATES WITHIN ANY STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE IMPRESSIVE, WITH
HREF PROBABILITIES FOR 2"/HR REACHING 20-30% NEAR THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE SOUTH, AND REACHING AS HIGH AS 10-15% AS FAR
NORTHEAST AS KENTUCKY AND INDIANA, LEADING TO STRIPES OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS. THE ECENS/SREF/GEFS 24-HR
PROBABILITIES ALL FEATURE A LOW TO MODERATE RISK (10-40%) FOR 3+
INCHES ON D2, WHILE THE HREF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE AT OVER 90%.
THE ECENS/HREF OVERLAP CONSIDERABLY IN THEIR FOOTPRINT, BUT THE
GEFS/SREF ARE DISPLACED TO THE WEST, INDICATING AT LEAST SOME
CONTINUED SPREAD IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY RAIN. THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY
BE MODIFIED BY BOTH THE FRONTAL POSITION AND TIMING OF ANY MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSES, BUT ALSO THROUGH CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
AND MODIFYING OF THE ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE DAY, WITH MODEST
ADJUSTMENT IN RESPONSE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT MAY
DEVELOP FROM CLOUDS AND MOIST SOILS. THIS VARIATION IS ADDITIONALLY
REFLECTED BY LARGE SPREAD IN THE WSE QPF PLUMES WITH MINIMAL
CLUSTERING AROUND ANY VALUE, BUT WITH A TREND UPWARD OVERALL IN THE
AREAL MEANS.
AS FAR AS THOSE MOIST SOILS, THE NASA SPORT 40CM SOIL MOISTURE
ANOMALY IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE, WITH WIDESPREAD SATURATION ABOVE THE
95TH PERCENTILE FROM THE TX PANHANDLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE SOUTH AND INTO EASTERN OK, WITH PERCENTILES ABOVE 80%
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY INTO IL/IN/KY DUE TO RECENT HEAVY RAIN THE
PAST FEW DAYS. THIS HAS COMPROMISED FFG TO AS LOW AS 1.5 TO 2
INCHES IN 3 HOURS IN SOME AREAS, WHICH HAS A 30-50% CHANCE OF
EXCEEDANCE ACCORDING TO HREF PROBABILITIES, HIGHEST ACROSS OK AND
TX. IT IS IN THIS AREA WHERE THE INHERITED MDT RISK MOSTLY
OVERLAPS, AND WHERE THE CSU UFVS FIRST GUESS FIELD SUGGESTS A
MODERATE (NON UFVS HAS AN ENHANCED RISK AREA). THIS IS ALSO WHERE
THE EFI INDICATES A >70% CHANCE OF AN EXTREME EVENT FOR RAINFALL,
WHICH, WHILE IMPRESSIVE, IS LOWER THAN WHAT IS PREFERRED FOR AN
INCREASE IN ERO CATEGORY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF CONFIDENCE IN
PLACEMENT CAN INCREASE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT OCCURS ATOP THE MOST
SENSITIVE SOILS, A TARGETED HIGH RISK COULD BE NEEDED.
DOWNSTREAM AND TO THE NORTHEAST, THE COLD FRONT WILL PRESS MORE
RAPIDLY EASTWARD, BUT INTO A STILL FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT TO SUPPORT FAST MOVING STORMS ALONG THE FRONT, WITH
RAINFALL RATES EXCEEDING 1"/HR AT TIMES. THIS HAS RESULTED IN SOME
MINOR COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS TO THE INHERITED MRGL RISK. IN GENERAL,
THOUGH, THE BROAD MRGL EXTENDING ALL THE WAY THROUGH THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHWEST PA AND FAR SOUTHWEST NY
WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.
WEISS
DAY 3
VALID 12Z WED APR 30 2025 - 12Z THU MAY 01 2025
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARKLATEX, EASTERN OKLAHOMA, AND WESTERN OZARKS...
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY OF CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODS, SOME
OF WHICH MAY BE SIGNIFICANT, IS LIKELY WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO EVOLVE IN A WAY THAT IS FAVORABLE
TO WIDESPREAD CONVECTION WITH TRAINING HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. THE PRIMARY DRIVER FOR
THIS DEVELOPMENT IS A POTENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS PROGGED TO
MOVE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS WEDNESDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY MORNING. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EAST, IT
MAY EVOLVE FROM A POSITIVE TO A NEUTRAL TILT, INCREASING
DOWNSTREAM DIVERGENCE AND HEIGHT FALLS, ESPECIALLY FROM EASTERN
TX/OK INTO AR/MO THE LATTER HALF OF D3. THIS ASCENT WILL BE
ENHANCED BY THE RRQ OF A STRENGTHENING AND MERIDIONALLY ADVANCING
JET STREAK PIVOTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES, LEAVING THE STRONG AND
DIFFLUENT RRQ ATOP THE MOST IMPRESSIVE MID-LEVEL LIFT. COMBINED,
THIS WILL PRODUCE STRONG LIFT ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT, INTO
WHICH IMPRESSIVE CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE CONFLUENCE WILL
ADDITIONAL HELP DRIVE ASCENT.
THIS DEEP LAYER LIFT WILL IMPINGE UPON A MOISTENING COLUMN AND
LOW-LEVEL FLOW EMERGING FROM THE GULF MAXIMIZES MOISTURE AS
REFLECTED BY A PW PLUME ABOVE THE 90TH PERCENTILE ACCORDING TO
NAEFS TRANSLATING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. AS THIS FRONT
AND THE OVERTOPPING SYNOPTIC LIFT MOVE INTO THIS MOISTENING COLUMN,
THE RESULT WILL BE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, AIDED BY
MLCAPE THAT MAY ECLIPSE 2000 J/KG IN PARTS OF THE REGION. REGIONAL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE LIS THAT MAY CLIMB TO -6 TO -10 AFTER 00Z
THURSDAY, WHICH SUGGESTS WIDE UPDRAFTS TO LIMIT DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT
DESPITE THE OVERALL MODEST BREADTH OF THE PW PLUME. THIS SUGGESTS
THAT RAINFALL RATES OF 2"/HR ARE LIKELY AS THE LLJ BACKS AND RAMPS
UP INTO TX, SURGING MOISTURE NORTHWARD, AND SETTING UP AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING AND BACKBUILDING. WHERE THESE
RAIN RATES TRAIN, THE MAJOR GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ALL INDICATE AT LEAST
A 10-20% CHANCE FOR 3+ INCHES OF RAIN, AND LOCALLY 5+ INCHES OF
RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE, ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION OF THE MAXIMA VARY
CONSIDERABLY AT THIS TIME RANGE.
SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS EASTERN TX, OK, AND INTO SOUTHERN MO IS WELL
ABOVE NORMAL, REFLECTED BY NASA SPORT 40CM SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES
THAT ARE ABOVE 90% IN MANY AREAS, AND MAY BE ADDITIONALLY ENHANCED
BY RAINFALL IN THE 48-HOURS LEADING INTO THIS D3 PERIOD. THIS WILL
KEEP FFG MARGINALLY LOWERED, SO ANY TRAINING OF THESE INTENSE RATES
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY FROM NE TX INTO FAR SW MO WHERE THE INHERITED MDT RISK
WAS ONLY ADJUSTED COSMETICALLY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR THE
NEED FOR AN UPGRADE IN PARTS OF TX/OK D3, BUT AT THIS TIME
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH, AND THIS DECISION WILL BE DEFERRED
TO LATER UPDATES AS THE D1 AND D2 RAINFALL FOOTPRINTS MATERIALIZE.
OTHERWISE, D3 CHANGES TO THE ERO WERE MINOR WITH THE SLGT AND MRGL
RISKS EXTENDING AS FAR NORTHEAST AS ST LOUIS, MO AND CINCINNATI,
OH, RESPECTIVELY.
WEISS
DAY 1 THREAT AREA:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/94EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 2 THREAT AREA:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/98EPOINTS.TXT
DAY 3 THREAT AREA:
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/QPF/99EPOINTS.TXT
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