883
FXUS01 KWBC 291901
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 PM EDT TUE APR 29 2025
VALID 00Z WED APR 30 2025 - 00Z FRI MAY 02 2025
...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED FROM THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST, TO THE OHIO VALLEY, TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, AND TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY...
...EPISODES OF HEAVY RAIN WILL BRING FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS
ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S. THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY...
AN ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES TO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES THIS
AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING UNDER A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND OHIO
VALLEY THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES
TO MAINTAIN AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
HIGH WINDS AND HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE ENTIRE NORTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING,
ENDING THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AS GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS USHER
MUCH COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST
AHEAD OF A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHEAST, BRINGING A CHILLY AND DRY
MORNING INTO THE REGION BY THURSDAY MORNING.
IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND
OHIO VALLEY, SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER SOUTH AND
WEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
THROUGH THIS EVENING. HERE, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTS
AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE WEATHER, WITH VERY LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE GREATEST THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR TWO IS NOT RULED OUT AS WELL. THEN ON WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS TO PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER OUTLINES A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA, ARKANSAS, AND TEXAS. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES ARE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS.
MEANWHILE, THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY AS A WARM
FRONT. AN EPISODE OF HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT AREAS FROM
NORTHERN TEXAS INTO A LARGE PORTION OF OKLAHOMA TOWARD THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE FRONT REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY.
GIVEN THE ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL,
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4+ INCHES OF RAIN, THE
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER MAINTAINS A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE
POSSIBLE, SOME OF WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY BE SIGNIFICANT. ON
WEDNESDAY, THE FOCUS FOR SIGNIFICANT HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING
SHIFTS ONLY SLIGHTLY EAST FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
WESTERN OZARKS OF ARKANSAS WHERE ANOTHER MODERATE RISK HIGHLIGHTS
THE CONCERN FOR NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING DUE TO
REPEATED TRAINING OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FOR THESE AREAS. BY
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM AND STRONG
COLD FRONT DESCENDING OUT OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL SWEEP TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, ENDING
THE SEVERE AND FLOODING THREATS AND BRINGING COOLER AIR INTO THE
REGION.
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT BRINGS AN END TO THE SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING CONCERNS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
FIRST PUSH ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEFORE DIGGING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND ROCKIES THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE REGION
THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH AREAS OF RAIN FALLING IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS, AND ACCUMULATING WET SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. IN THE
WAKE OF THE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT, DRIER WEATHER WORKS IN LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL.
A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. WILL BRING WELL ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH TO MUCH OF THE
REGION THROUGH MID TO LATE WEEK. FORECAST HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
WILL BE COMMON, INCLUDING FOR MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS LIKE THE
MIDWEST AND NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.
BEHIND THE FRONT, PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST COOL
DOWN BRIEFLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE WARMING BACK UP ON THURSDAY. OVERALL
NEAR AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
U.S. WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WARMING UP SOME ACROSS THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
MILLER/KONG
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