014
FXUS06 KWBC 291907
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT TUE APRIL 29 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 09 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND
ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHEASTERN CONTIGUOUS U.S. (CONUS),
WHILE MID-LEVEL 500-HPA TROUGHS AND BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS
ALASKA, EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC
OCEAN. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA, WHERE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DUE TO A PREDICTED WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
REGION) UNDERNEATH PREDOMINANT RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES (>80%)
ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH THAT PROGRESSES OVER THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. UNDER PREDICTED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ALASKA, WHILE
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOL. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII,
WITH POSITIVE SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.
WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS. BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS UNDER AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED
FOR MOST OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EAST COAST DUE TO A WEAK TROUGH
PREDICTED OVER THE REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHILE NEAR OR
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MAINLAND
ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS.
PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL FORECASTS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME
AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 13 2025
NSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONS. A
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST ACROSS ALASKA AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THIS REGION.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO, TEXAS, AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA WITH PREDICTED BELOW-AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHERN PART OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER THE ALEUTIANS
AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED TO PERSIST
ACROSS HAWAII DURING WEEK-2 BY DYNAMICAL MODELS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS AS WELL AS FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EAST COAST,
SUPPORTED BY MOST DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR TO
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS,
UNDER MEAN POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD,
ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA
AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER
THE NORTH COASTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 30% OF TODAY'S 6Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 40% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 30% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE PROGRESSIVE CIRCULATION PATTERN, OFFSET BY SOME
AREAS OF DISAGREEMENT AMONG FORECAST TOOLS.
FORECASTER: LUKE H
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570424 - 19660423 - 19590507 - 19940411 - 20040417
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19570423 - 19660425 - 19740426 - 19640421 - 19640408
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 05 - 09 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A A OREGON A A NRN CALIF N N
SRN CALIF B A IDAHO A A NEVADA N A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH B A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A B LOUISIANA A A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A B MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A A
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N B GEORGIA N B
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN N A
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 07 - 13 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON N A NRN CALIF N A
SRN CALIF N A IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA N A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA A N WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA A B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A N MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA A N
FL PNHDL N N FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page