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FXUS06 KWBC 301902
PMDMRD
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK, MD
300 PM EDT WED APRIL 30 2025
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 06 - 10 2025
TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA
CIRCULATION PATTERN ACROSS NORTH AMERICA AND SURROUNDING REGIONS DURING THE
6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE
ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS DUE TO RECENT MODEL
SKILL. THE RESULTANT MANUAL BLEND FEATURES AN AMPLIFIED
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONTIGUOUS
U.S. (CONUS), WHILE WEAK BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CONUS. A TROUGH IS FORECAST ACROSS ALASKA, EXTENDING INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA, WITH ASSOCIATED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES ACROSS THE STATE.
RIDGING IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC OCEAN. NEAR-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS
ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAII.
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED OVER
MOST OF THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN CONUS (EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA, WHERE
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DUE TO A PREDICTED WEAK TROUGH OVER THE
REGION) UNDERNEATH PREDOMINANT RIDGING AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS,
SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE. THE STRONGEST PROBABILITIES (>70%)
ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. ANOMALOUS NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CONUS UNDER THE PREDICTED TROUGH THAT PROGRESSES OVER THE REGION
DURING THE PERIOD. UNDER PREDICTED NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES,
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY OVER MUCH OF ALASKA, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE ALEUTIANS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH THE REFORECAST CONSOLIDATION TEMPERATURE
FORECAST TOOL. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR HAWAII, WITH POSITIVE
SURROUNDING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES.
WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS.
BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS UNDER AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE AND ABOVE-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED FOR MOST OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EAST COAST DUE TO A WEAK
TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE REGION. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED ACROSS
MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD OF A PREDICTED TROUGH AND SOUTHERLY FLOW, WHILE
NEAR OR BELOW-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS PREDICTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MAINLAND ALASKA, SUPPORTED BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST
TOOLS. PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION TOOL FORECASTS FAVOR ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII.
THE OFFICIAL 6-10 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 8, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 8, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY
8
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 14 2025
ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD PREDICT A FAIRLY CONSISTENT
500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN RELATIVE TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE SURROUNDING REGIONS. A PREDICTED RIDGE AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONS. A
WEAK TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
NEGATIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES PERSIST ACROSS ALASKA AND EXTEND SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA AND SOUTHWESTERN CONUS LATER IN THE
PERIOD. SLIGHTLY BELOW-NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED ACROSS HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CONUS IN THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, UNDER RIDGING AND POSITIVE 500-HPA
HEIGHT ANOMALIES. PROBABILITIES EXCEED 70 PERCENT FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THIS REGION.
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO, OKLAHOMA, TEXAS,
AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA WITH PREDICTED BELOW-AVERAGE MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS AND
ENHANCED PRECIPITATION. BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN PART OF MAINLAND ALASKA, WHILE ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
INDICATED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA, CONSISTENT WITH
MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TEMPERATURE FORECAST TOOLS. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
PREDICTED TO PERSIST ACROSS HAWAII DURING WEEK-2 BY DYNAMICAL MODELS.
NEAR- TO ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS
AS WELL AS FLORIDA AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN EAST COAST, SUPPORTED BY MOST
DYNAMICAL MODEL PRECIPITATION FORECAST TOOLS. NEAR- TO BELOW-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS, UNDER MEAN
POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, ABOVE-NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF SOUTHERN MAINLAND ALASKA AHEAD OF A
PREDICTED TROUGH, WHILE NEAR-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. ABOVE-NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR HAWAII DURING THE
WEEK-2 PERIOD, CONSISTENT WITH THE PRECIPITATION CONSOLIDATION.
THE OFFICIAL 8-14 DAY 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND CONSISTS OF: 34% OF TODAY'S 0Z GFS
ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON DAY 11, 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z EUROPEAN ENSEMBLE MEAN
CENTERED ON DAY 11, AND 33% OF TODAY'S 0Z CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN CENTERED ON
DAY 11
FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5. VERY
GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DYNAMICAL AND
STATISTICAL TOOLS IS OFFSET BY DIFFERENCES IN ENSEMBLE MEAN 500-HPA HEIGHT
ANOMALIES.
FORECASTER: DANIEL BARANDIARAN
NOTES:
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES. IN
THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT ISSUED.
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS THE SAME AS
THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER (ORANGE,
"A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL AVERAGE
VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WETTER (GREEN,
"A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N"). HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES
FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST (DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE
SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY (> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A).
PROBABILITY OF N IS ALWAYS < 40%.
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY EVEN A NORMAL
(I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES
A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS AS REFERENCE IN
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.
THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON MAY
15.
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660424 - 19560512 - 19570424 - 19940411 - 19590507
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:
19660425 - 19640409 - 19570424 - 20040420 - 19560512
6-10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 06 - 10 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON A N OREGON A N NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA A N WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA B A COLORADO B A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A N S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA N A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS N A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A B IOWA A B MISSOURI A B
ARKANSAS A A LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI A N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N B NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A N MAINE A N
MASS A N CONN A B RHODE IS A N
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A B S CAROLINA N N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE B B
AK ALEUTIAN N A AK WESTERN N A AK INT BSN B A
AK S INT B A AK SO COAST B A AK PNHDL B A
8-14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE
OUTLOOK FOR MAY 08 - 14 2025
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN
WASHINGTON N A OREGON A A NRN CALIF A N
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A A NEVADA A A
W MONTANA A A E MONTANA A A WYOMING A A
UTAH A A ARIZONA A A COLORADO A A
NEW MEXICO B A N DAKOTA A A S DAKOTA A A
NEBRASKA A A KANSAS A A OKLAHOMA B A
N TEXAS B A S TEXAS B A W TEXAS B A
MINNESOTA A N IOWA A B MISSOURI A N
ARKANSAS A N LOUISIANA N A WISCONSIN A B
ILLINOIS A B MISSISSIPPI N N MICHIGAN A B
INDIANA A B OHIO A B KENTUCKY A B
TENNESSEE A B ALABAMA N N NEW YORK A B
VERMONT A B NEW HAMP A B MAINE A B
MASS A B CONN A B RHODE IS A B
PENN A B NEW JERSEY A B W VIRGINIA A B
MARYLAND A B DELAWARE A B VIRGINIA A B
N CAROLINA A N S CAROLINA A N GEORGIA N N
FL PNHDL N A FL PENIN N A AK N SLOPE B N
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN N N AK INT BSN N N
AK S INT N A AK SO COAST N A AK PNHDL N A
LEGEND
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN
B - BELOW B - BELOW
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 KWBC - ON AWIPS AS
PMDMRD.
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