492
FXUS01 KWBC 011922
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
321 PM EDT THU MAY 01 2025
VALID 00Z FRI MAY 02 2025 - 00Z SUN MAY 04 2025
...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK TO FORM ACROSS THE CONUS,
LEADING TO ACTIVE WEATHER AND LARGE TEMPERATURES CONTRASTS...
...HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO STRETCH FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, NORTHEAST INTO OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKES
REGION...
THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
BLOCKED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMING FROM
CALIFORNIA, EASTWARD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE EASTERN COMPONENT
OF THIS BLOCK WILL BE COMPRISED OF A SLOW MOVING AND STRENGTHENING
CLOSED LOW FORMING ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY AND
MOVING INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/LOWER OHIO VALLEY REGION ON
SATURDAY. TO THE WEST OF THIS, AN AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES REGION FRIDAY/SATURDAY AND
MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. MEANWHILE,
THE WESTERN COMPONENT OF THE OMEGA BLOCK WILL SEE A STRONG CLOSED
LOW FORM ALONG THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AND DROP
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO EARLY SUNDAY.
AN AXIS OF ABOVE AVERAGE MOISTURE VALUES EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG
AND TO THE EAST OF A FRONTAL ZONE THAT WILL BE MOVING ONLY SLOWLY
EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERN
COMPONENT OF THE OMEGA BLOCK. THIS WILL SUPPORT INCREASINGLY
ACTIVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CONUS
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
TENNESSEE VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKES REGION. THIS
ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS WILL
BE FALLING ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE SEEN ABOVE AVERAGE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE PAST MONTH, WHICH HAS RESULTED IN HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AND
STREAM FLOW VALUES. THIS ADDITIONAL RAINS OVER THE MORE SATURATED
SOILS AND HIGHER STREAM FLOW WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF FLOODING FROM
ENHANCED RUNOFF ACROSS THESE AREAS. IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING
THREAT, THE ACTIVE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE
VALLEY, OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKES REGION. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER RISKS ACROSS
THESE AREAS, WITH TORNADOES A LESSER RISK. THE EXPECTED HEAVY
RAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW TWO DAYS, WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
IMMEDIATE EASTERN SEABOARD THAT CONTINUES TO BE DRY AND EXPERIENCE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS. HOWEVER,
PORTIONS OF THE DROUGHT AREA ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MUCH NEEDED RAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, BRINGING AT LEAST SOME RELIEF TO THE CURRENT DROUGHT
CONDITIONS.
WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYSTEMS STRETCHING WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE CONUS, LARGE TEMPERATURES CONTRASTS WILL
DEVELOP. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
SATURDAY ALONG ALL OF THE WEST COAST FROM WASHINGTON TO
CALIFORNIA, PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWEST AND BECOMING MUCH BELOW
AVERAGE (15 TO 25 DEGREE BELOW AVERAGE) BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND
AS THE STRONG CLOSED LOW FORMS. UNDERNEATH THE AMPLIFIED UPPER
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THIS, MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN/NORTHERN ROCKIES
FRIDAY WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PLAINS BY THIS
WEEKEND. MEANWHILE, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPECTED IN THE
ABOVE MENTIONED REGION OF ACTIVE PRECIPITATION STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, OHIO
VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EASTERN LAKES REGIONS. WHILE ALL OF
THESE REGIONS SEE LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS AND LARGE NEGATIVE
AN POSITIVE TEMPERATURES ANOMALIES, THERE IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
ANY WIDESPREAD RECORD, WARM OR COLD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ORAVEC
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