768
FXUS01 KWBC 021959
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT FRI MAY 02 2025
VALID 00Z SAT MAY 03 2025 - 00Z MON MAY 05 2025
...UPPER-LEVEL OMEGA BLOCK TO FORM ACROSS THE CONUS, LEADING TO
PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND LARGE TEMPERATURES CONTRASTS
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
...HEAVY RAIN, FLOODING, AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS TO STRETCH
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT...
THE MID- TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMING, WITH
UPPER LOWS DEVELOPING ATOP CALIFORNIA AND THE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BRING PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FIRST TO PORTIONS
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S., AND EVENTUALLY TO THE WESTERN
U.S. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY FLOW SUPPORTING A MOIST
AIRMASS ALONG A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL HELP TO FOCUS THE FIRST AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE BOUNDARY IS
BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY IN SOME AREAS AND BRINGING REPEATED
ROUNDS OF CONVECTION, AS STORMS SHOULD HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE
GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT. THE PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/MID-SOUTH, ARKLATEX, AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. IN ADDITION, INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AS
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD OVER THE VERY MOIST, BUOYANT
AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO SOME MORE INTENSE CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS OUTLINED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) STRETCHING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY, THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND INTO PORTIONS OF TEXAS FOR THE THREAT OF DAMAGING
WINDS, LARGE HAIL (ESPECIALLY IN TEXAS), AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR
TWO. THE FRONT WILL MAKE SOME PROGRESS SOUTH AND EASTWARD INTO
SATURDAY, BRINGING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE
NORTHEAST, MID-ATLANTIC, APPALACHIANS, AND SOUTHEAST. SPC HAS
ADDED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FROM PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR WIND AND HAIL RISKS. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH SOME ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
TO THE WEST, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING ALONG A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO
FRIDAY. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH
THE WEST FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGHING THAT
DROPS SOUTH TO FORM THE UPPER LOW TO SOLIDIFY THE OMEGA BLOCK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL FIRST PICK UP OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND
ROCKIES TO HIGH PLAINS THIS WEEKEND. SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR SOME OF THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS, PARTICULARLY IN THE SIERRA
NEVADA AND SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
SUNDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING ISOLATED FLOODING IS ALSO
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AND FOUR CORNERS STATES,
PARTICULARLY BY SUNDAY.
THE INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
THE CONUS WILL BRING LARGE TEMPERATURE CONTRASTS HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. MOST OF THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE LOWER 48 IS SEEING A
WARMER THAN AVERAGE FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 70S
AND 80S. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AS HIGHS FALL INTO THE
60S AND 70S. BUT HIGHS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST COAST WILL REMAIN
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AND INTO THE 70S NORTH WITH 80S FURTHER SOUTH.
MEANWHILE PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND MUCH OF THE
PLAINS SHOULD BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS UNDER
THE EASTERN TROUGH, WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S FOR
THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AND 60S AND 70S FOR THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS OUTSIDE OF SOUTHERN TEXAS. MUCH OF THE WEST IS SEEING ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT
BASIN/ROCKIES, AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. THE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
ON SATURDAY AS THE SECOND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DROPS SOUTHWARD ALONG
THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS, NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. BUT MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE WEST COAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
TATE/PUTNAM
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page