404
FXUS01 KWBC 040749
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 04 2025
VALID 12Z SUN MAY 04 2025 - 12Z TUE MAY 06 2025
...A CONTINUED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL LEAD TO
PROLONGED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...
...SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
AN OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING
AS A STRONG RIDGE BUILDS BETWEEN A PAIR OF UPPER-LEVEL LOWS OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING
PROLONGED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES TO
PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN AND WESTERN U.S. WHILE NORTH-CENTRAL AREAS
SEE DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. FIRST, IN
THE EAST, THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AS WELL AS AN
ACCOMPANYING OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES AND EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE
TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED GIVEN THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT, WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, MORE FOCUSED VERY MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE
ATLANTIC AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF A FEW MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES
OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL
2/4) IN EFFECT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS WILL MAKE THE MOST EASTWARD PROGRESS, BRINGING
AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AS
THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST, WHILE RAINFALL LINGERS INTO TUESDAY
FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. FORECAST TEMPERATURES
BROADLY THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS.
TO THE WEST, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO REMAIN IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND
UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND SOUTHWEST TODAY
WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD ON MONDAY, BRINGING GREATER CHANCES INTO
AREAS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS AREAS
OF THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN DRY OUT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, IS MOST
LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN SUNDAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN MONDAY. HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES ON MONDAY, WITH TOTALS OF 4-8", LOCALLY HIGHER, EXPECTED.
A MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FLOWS
NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE
MOUNTAINS OVER THE REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS
IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN
TEXAS ON MONDAY WHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RATES OF 1"/HR AND
2-4" TOTALS MAY LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING. IN ADDITION, SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY GIVEN THE MOISTURE
IN PLACE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING LOW, ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SOME
SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) SUNDAY
MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE
MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS FOR THE THREAT OF VERY
LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN CONTRAST TO
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE NORTH, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW
MEXICO WILL REMAIN VERY DRY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LOW,
WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS PROMPTING A
CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER (LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER FOR SUNDAY. CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST
AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE
UPPER-LOW OVERHEAD AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WEST WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEST COAST WILL BE COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE
AS WELL ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, BEFORE A WARM UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE
UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90, UPWARDS OF 30-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LOW AND AN
ACCOMPANYING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AS HIGHS FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
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