079
FXUS01 KWBC 042000
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 PM EDT SUN MAY 04 2025
VALID 00Z MON MAY 05 2025 - 00Z WED MAY 07 2025
...A CONTINUED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL LEAD TO
PROLONGED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...
...SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL BE IN A BLOCKY PATTERN THAT KEEPS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ANCHORED OVER THE CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS WILL MAKE THE MOST EASTWARD PROGRESS,
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST, WHILE RAINFALL LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES BROADLY THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS.
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH DAILY
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. FURTHER WEST, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ALSO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT BASIN, FOUR
CORNERS REGION, AND SOUTHWEST TODAY WILL SHIFT A BIT EASTWARD ON
MONDAY, BRINGING GREATER CHANCES INTO AREAS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS AREAS OF THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN
DRY OUT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH SOME ISOLATED
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, IS MOST LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
BASIN SUNDAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY. HIGHER MOUNTAIN
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL, PARTICULARLY OVER
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY, WITH TOTALS OF
4-8", LOCALLY HIGHER, EXPECTED. A MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FLOWS NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD OF A SURFACE
FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE REGION. A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OVER
PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN TEXAS ON MONDAY WHERE THE
POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RATES OF 1"/HR AND 2-4" TOTALS MAY LEAD TO SOME
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION, SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH
THE APPROACHING LOW, ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL WINDS, WILL
LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER HAS OUTLINED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) SUNDAY MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE
HAIL. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS FOR THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN CONTRAST TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
NORTH, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LOW, WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS PROMPTING A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR SUNDAY.
CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BE BELOW AVERAGE GIVEN THE UPPER-LOW OVERHEAD AND WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S
AND 60S ACROSS THE INTERIOR WEST WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEST COAST WILL BE COOLER AND
BELOW AVERAGE AS WELL ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S,
BEFORE A WARM UP INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW
SHIFTS EASTWARD.
ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE
UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES, NORTHERN/CENTRAL
PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90, UPWARDS OF 30-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LOW AND AN
ACCOMPANYING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH
PLAINS MONDAY AS HIGHS FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S.
CAMPBELL/PUTNAM
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