836
FXUS01 KWBC 042013
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
412 PM EDT SUN MAY 04 2025
VALID 00Z MON MAY 05 2025 - 00Z WED MAY 07 2025
...A CONTINUED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 WILL LEAD TO
PROLONGED PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MONDAY...
...SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AS WELL AS SEVERE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL BE IN A BLOCKY PATTERN THAT KEEPS
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS ANCHORED OVER THE CALIFORNIA AND DESERT SOUTHWEST
AND OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST AS AN
OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT ARCING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES AND EAST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. GIVEN THE SLOW
PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM, MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN
BE EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TODAY THROUGH AT
LEAST WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST/CAROLINAS WILL MAKE THE MOST EASTWARD PROGRESS,
BRINGING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES FOR THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE FRONT CLEARS THE COAST, WHILE RAINFALL LINGERS INTO
TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. FORECAST
TEMPERATURES BROADLY THROUGHOUT THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHEAST WILL
REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, PARTICULARLY FOR THE
OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE ALONG THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF
THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR NEW
ENGLAND AND THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND THE 70S AND 80S FOR THE
SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS.
THE NORTH-CENTRAL U.S. WILL GENERALLY BE DRY WITH DAILY
TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. ELSEWHERE, DRY CONDITIONS AND WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY AS THE UPPER-RIDGE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HIGHS
WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES, NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS, AND UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MAY APPROACH 90, UPWARDS
OF 30-35 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE APPROACH
OF THE UPPER-LOW AND AN ACCOMPANYING EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS MONDAY AS HIGHS FALL INTO THE 50S
AND 60S.
FURTHER WEST, WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES WERE REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, GREAT
BASIN, FOUR CORNERS REGION, AND SOUTHWEST ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY, BRINGING GREATER CHANCES INTO AREAS OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS AS AREAS OF THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN DRY OUT. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL,
WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE, IS MOST LIKELY OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY AND THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN MONDAY.
FOR SOME OF THE LOCATIONS WITH HIGHER TERRAIN, SNOW WILL LIKELY
ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
WHERE TOTALS OF 4 TO 8+ INCHES ARE EXPECTED. A MORE FOCUSED
CORRIDOR OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FROM THE GULF FLOWS NORTHWESTWARD AHEAD
OF A SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGING FROM THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE
REGION. A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TODAY WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK
OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE/WESTERN TEXAS ON MONDAY WHERE
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN RATES OF 1"/HR AND 2-4" TOTALS MAY LEAD TO
SOME SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION,
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE AND COOLER AIR
ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING LOW, ALONG WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS, WILL LEAD TO THE THREAT OF SOME SEVERE WEATHER. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WITH A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) TODAY MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF
LARGE HAIL. ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IN PLACE MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS FOR THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND A FEW TORNADOES. IN CONTRAST TO THE UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE
NORTH, PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN VERY DRY
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER-LOW, WITH THE COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS PROMPTING A CRITICAL RISK OF FIRE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/3) FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FOR TODAY. WPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS HAVING
A SLIGHT RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND
MONDAY (LEVEL 2/4) BEFORE EXPANDING ACROSS THE GULF STATES/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI AND RAISING TO A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4). CONDITIONS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE BELOW
AVERAGE GIVEN THE UPPER-LOW OVERHEAD AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST TEMPERATURES SUNDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WEST WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE WEST COAST WILL BE COOLER AND BELOW AVERAGE
AS WELL ON SUNDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, BEFORE A WARM UP
INTO THE 60S AND 70S ON MONDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW SHIFTS EASTWARD.
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