649
FXUS01 KWBC 052007
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
406 PM EDT MON MAY 05 2025
VALID 00Z TUE MAY 06 2025 - 00Z THU MAY 08 2025
...HEAVY SNOW OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...
...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY, A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON
MONDAY, AND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY...
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON TUESDAY; A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND
MID-ATLANTIC, AND A SECOND AREA OVER THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON
MONDAY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY....
AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO
THE GULF OF MAINE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL DRAW MOISTURE OFF THE ATLANTIC OVER PARTS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST. THE MOISTURE WILL AID IN CREATING
HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS
OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY
RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH
URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST
VULNERABLE.
IN ADDITION, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
AND AHEAD OF A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO
THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHEAST COAST. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
OHIO VALLEY, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND MID-ATLANTIC THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND
A FEW TORNADOES.
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS
OF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA. THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES.
MEANWHILE, A SECOND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY
MOVE TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE
ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL AID IN PRODUCING SHOWERS AND SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE
SPC HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. HOWEVER, THERE IS AN ADDED THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, WIND GUSTS OF 65 KNOTS, AND HAIL ONE INCH OR
GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE, THE WESTERN UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PULL MOISTURE OFF
THE GULF OF AMERICA INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY
LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL
STREAMS, AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
MOREOVER, THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL PRODUCE HEAVY SNOW OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY.
ADDITIONALLY, AS THE BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WESTERN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW MOVES EASTWARD, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE SPC
HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW
TORNADOES. FURTHER, THERE IS AN ADDED RISK OF HAIL ONE INCH OR
GREATER OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A MODERATE RISK (LEVEL 3/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER
PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. NUMEROUS FLASH FLOODING EVENTS ARE
POSSIBLE. MANY STREAMS MAY FLOOD, POTENTIALLY AFFECTING LARGER
RIVERS.
FURTHERMORE, ON WEDNESDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
END. HOWEVER, THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE AS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, SMALL STREAMS,
AND LOW-LYING AREAS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
ZIEGENFELDER
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