747
FXUS01 KWBC 060801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 06 2025
VALID 12Z TUE MAY 06 2025 - 12Z THU MAY 08 2025
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER TO PORTIONS OF
TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TUESDAY...
...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO
VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY...
...COOLER, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR WEST AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST REMAIN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH MID-WEEK...
A STAGNANT, OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WITH AN UPPER-LOW
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ANOTHER UPPER-LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS BOTH LOWS
BEGIN TO MAKE SOME EASTWARD PROGRESS, BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER
COUPLE DAYS OF ASSOCIATED UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH A THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE STORMS. THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEM EMERGING
ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS MORNING WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
CONTINUED WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AN INFLUX OF
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS TEXAS AND LOUISIANA WILL
LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL
EXPECTED AS A COMPLEX OF STORMS MOVES ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY. A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (ERO) IS IN EFFECT
FROM EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
AS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING ARE EXPECTED.
A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD AS
ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS
OKLAHOMA AND IN UPSLOPE FLOW THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO/NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO, WITH ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION,
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INCREASING WINDS WITH THE APPROACHING
UPPER-LOW WILL LEAD TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND BOTH DEEP AND
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME INTENSE, SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
TEXAS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER (LEVEL 3/5) FOR THE THREAT OF A FEW TORNADOES, SOME
OF WHICH COULD BE STRONG, AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. MORE SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED BROADLY FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEST THROUGH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS,
WITH LARGE HAIL, ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHWEST/CENTRAL TEXAS, DAMAGING
WINDS, AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.
THE UPPER-LOW WILL MAKE SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESS ON TUESDAY, WITH
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST BUT GENERALLY REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY. ANOTHER ROUND
OF WIDESPREAD STORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG THE BOUNDARY, PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND REPEATED
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL AS STORMS CLUSTER ALONG THE BOUNDARY HAVE
PROMPTED A SLIGHT RISK ERO FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING. MORE
SCATTERED STORMS WITH MODERATE RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST, AS WELL AS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF A SECONDARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE REGION. LINGERING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ALSO CONTINUE UNDER THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION MONDAY. SNOW IS ONGOING FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE ROCKIES IN COLORADO AND NORTH-CENTRAL NEW MEXICO, WITH SOME
HEAVY SNOW TOTALS OF 1-2'+ FORECAST TUESDAY FOR THE FRONT RANGE OF
THE ROCKIES GIVEN THE FOCUSED MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM THE EAST.
MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END BY TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER-LOW CONTINUES EAST.
SHOWERS AND STORMS ALSO CONTINUE THIS MORNING UNDER THE EASTERN
UPPER-LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND AHEAD OF AN ACCOMPANYING
SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS MOST LIKELY FROM THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN
MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS THE UPPER-LOW OPENS INTO A WAVE AND
FINALLY BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD, WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHTER RAIN
CHANCES WEDNESDAY MAINLY FOR THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND NEW
ENGLAND. ELSEWHERE, SCATTERED DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE
EXPECTED FOR FLORIDA AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERING THROUGH
THE REGION. A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PERSISTENT WELL BELOW AVERAGE AND WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST THROUGH MID-WEEK AS THE OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN LINGERS
FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS. THE MOST ANOMALOUSLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
STRETCH ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST AND INTO THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS UNDER THE WESTERN UPPER-LOW. FORECAST
HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ARE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S, WITH
60S AND 70S FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES, WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S, AND
INTO THE SOUTHEAST, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S. THE EAST COAST
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH SOME COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NEW ENGLAND IN THE 50S AND 60S, BUT SOME
WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH WITH 60S AND 70S IN THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
80S FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTH TO FLORIDA. IN CONTRAST, HIGHS OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST REMAIN WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
AND INTO THE 70S AND 80S FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THE WEST COAST WILL
ALSO BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE AS A RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE
OF THE UPPER-LOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S. THESE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL SPREAD INLAND FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR WEST BY WEDNESDAY.
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