623
FOUS11 KWBC 061831
QPFHSD
PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
231 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2025
VALID 00Z WED MAY 07 2025 - 00Z SAT MAY 10 2025
..CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES
DAYS 1-2...
UPPER LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN NM THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD
AND PULL AWAY FROM THE ROCKIES, ALLOWING ANY MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
TO TAPER TO LIGHT SNOW INTO WEDNESDAY. FOR THIS EVENING, THE STRONG
MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE WESTERN GULF WILL SUPPORT SNOWFALL RATES
OF 1-2"/HR OVER PARTS OF THE CO ROCKIES INTO THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS
BEFORE LESSENING IN INTENSITY AND BECOMING LIGHTER WEDNESDAY
MORNING. FOR WEDNESDAY ITSELF, TROUGHING WILL REMAIN OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND A TRAILING SMALLER/COMPACT UPPER LOW OVER THE
CA/AZ BORDER WILL ACT TO PROLONG THE REBOUND IN HEIGHTS, ALLOWING
SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PERSIST OVER THE SAN JUANS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BY TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY, HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS WILL SNOW
LEVELS, CONFINING ONLY LIGHT SNOW TO THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS
ABOVE 11,000FT OR SO.
WPC PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST 8 INCHES OF SNOW AFTER 00Z TONIGHT
ARE >50% ABOVE 10,000FT OR SO. SOME SNOW IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO AROUND
7000FT THIS EVENING.
THE PROBABILITY OF AT LEAST 4 INCHES OF SNOW ON DAY 3 IS LESS THAN
10 PERCENT.
THE PROBABILITY OF SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE CONUS IS
LESS THAN 10%.
FRACASSO
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