046
FXUS01 KWBC 070801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT WED MAY 07 2025
VALID 12Z WED MAY 07 2025 - 12Z FRI MAY 09 2025
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO BRING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
WEDNESDAY...
...PESKY WEATHER PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CONTINUES...
...COOLER, WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE COUNTRY AS THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN
U.S. SEE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...
THE OMEGA BLOCK THAT HAS DOMINATED THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS
THE CONUS THE LAST FEW DAYS, ANCHORED BY AN EASTERN UPPER-LOW OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY AND A SECOND, WESTERN UPPER-LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EVOLVE THROUGH MID-WEEK, THOUGH GENERAL
UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE UPPER-LOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST HAS BEGUN TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE, A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY
REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION OVERNIGHT STRETCHES EAST TO WEST
JUST NORTH OF THE GULF COAST. ANOMALOUSLY HIGH GULF MOISTURE
POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE
APPROACHING LOW WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR YET ANOTHER COMPLEX OF
STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN GULF COAST AND MOVE
EASTWARD ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
SATURATED SOILS FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL AND LONG-DURATION, HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE SECOND COMPLEX TO MOVE THROUGH TODAY WILL BRING
THE RISK OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH A MODERATE RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 3/4) FOR
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND A BROADER SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST/SOUTH TEXAS WILL LEAD TO
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME STRONGER, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER OUTLINING A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER, MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL
WIDESPREAD STORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT A BROAD WARM SECTOR
AHEAD OF A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TENNESSEE/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND CENTRAL PLAINS, WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY FROM WESTERN/SOUTHERN TEXAS EAST ALONG
THE GULF COAST AS THE BOUNDARY REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. A
MORE FOCUSED CORRIDOR OF STORMS OVER SATURATED SOILS ACROSS
LOUISIANA MAY LEAD TO A FEW MORE SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING, WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN PLACE TO
COVER THIS THREAT. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS ALSO EXPECTED FURTHER NORTH AHEAD OF THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST
TODAY AS THE OTHER UPPER-LOW THAT HAD BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE ATLANTIC.
HOWEVER, UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM
CANADA AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT SWEEPING
SOUTHEASTWARD WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TO THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY AND THE TENDENCY FOR STORMS TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
PARALLEL TO THE BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER RAINFALL
TOTALS, PARTICULARLY FOCUSED ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NORTHWESTERN NEW JERSEY, AND SOUTHERN
NEW YORK, WHERE ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN
EFFECT FOR SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. ELSEWHERE, DAILY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST OF
FLORIDA AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST,
WITH SOME HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
SOME LINGERING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER-LOW SLOWLY DEPARTS THE REGION. A PACIFIC SYSTEM
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THEN INLAND THROUGH THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY.
COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN U.S. FROM THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST WITH THE UPPER-LOW/BROAD TROUGHING
DOMINATING THE PATTERN AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES. HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH SOME 80S EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DESERTS AND FOR MORE SOUTHERN LOCATIONS ACROSS TEXAS
AND EAST ALONG THE GULF COAST. CLOSER TO AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN TO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS THE
UPPER-LOW DEPARTS THE REGION, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 70S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BRING COOLER, BELOW AVERAGE CONDITIONS BACK TO THE
GREAT LAKES THURSDAY AS HIGHS FALL INTO THE 50S AND 60S. IN
CONTRAST, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST WITH A LINGERING UPPER-HIGH OVER
HEAD, WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S. ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE WEST AS A
RIDGE BUILDS NORTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER-LOW,
WITH 60S AND 70S ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND INTERIOR WEST.
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S WILL COME TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
VALLEYS AND DESERT SOUTHWEST BY THURSDAY. GENERALLY AVERAGE HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST COAST, WITH 60S AND 70S
FOR NEW ENGLAND AND 70S INTO THE 80S SOUTH THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.
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