856
FXUS01 KWBC 071951
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
350 PM EDT WED MAY 07 2025
VALID 00Z THU MAY 08 2025 - 00Z SAT MAY 10 2025
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE TO BRING THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE GULF COAST THOUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...
...THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL RETURN ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE...
...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTHERN PLAINS ACROSS THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...
A LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN GULF COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. STORMS THAT DEVELOP
WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING A FEW INCHES OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT
OF TIME AND COULD BRING SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY OVER
SATURATED AREAS THAT SAW PREVIOUS ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY
RAINFALL IS LIKELY TO THEN PERSIST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND PENINSULA INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWS DOWN
OVER THE REGION. UPDATES TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOKS MAY BE
NEEDED. MEANWHILE, CENTRAL AND SOUTH TEXAS COULD SEE ANOTHER
CLUSTER OF STORMS ARRIVE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH A DISTURBANCE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD. SOME FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS GIVEN THE PREVIOUS DAYS' RAINFALL.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS A FEW AREAS HIGHLIGHTED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF SEVERE STORMS. THE FIRST AREA TO FOCUS ON WILL BE ON
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF TEXAS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN MCS, OR
LINE OF STRONG STORMS, MAY BRING STRONG WINDS, SOME LARGE HAIL,
AND A TORNADO OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY ACROSS FLORIDA, THE DEEP SOUTH, AND THE
APPALACHIANS. A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FOCUSED AROUND
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FOR THE HAZARDS OF SEVERE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS. AREAS OUTSIDE THIS REGION WILL SEE A LESS LIKELY
CHANCE OF STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG STORMS
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST ON SATURDAY.
A COLD FRONT WILL SWING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE EAST COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON-SATURDAY. A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO FORM OVER FLOOD SENSITIVE REGIONS OF THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST,
PARTICULARLY OVER AREAS IN TERRAIN SUCH AS THE POCONOS AND
CATSKILLS WHERE SOME SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE URBAN
CORRIDORS HAVE A MORE ISOLATED RISK OF FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL PER
THE LATEST FORECAST. IN ALL, 2-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY FALL
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BEFORE THE SYSTEM LEAVES THE AREA ON SATURDAY.
THE WEST COAST TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL FEEL WELL-ABOVE AVERAGE
WARMTH AS HIGH PRESSURE AND MID-LEVEL RIDGING TAKE CONTROL OVER
THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY, FRIDAY, AND SATURDAY WILL BE
AS MUCH AS 10-25 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S AND 100S WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST; THE
SACRAMENTO VALLEY REGION OF CALIFORNIA MAY SEE UPPER 90S POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAIN WEST WILL SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE 80S, WITH
SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE MIDDLE
80S IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THIS PART OF THE COUNTRY MAY HAVE
TEMPERATURES NEAR 20 TO EVEN 30 DEGREES WARMER THAN AVERAGE FOR
MAY. FOR RAIN CHANCES, MOST AREAS IN THE WEST WILL BE DRY.
HOWEVER, A WEAK FRONTAL PASSAGE ATTEMPT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND
GREAT BASIN COULD BRING THE CHANCES FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY, LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO.
LAST BUT NOT LEAST, THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
WILL SEE COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK ONCE
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.
WILDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page