600
FXUS01 KWBC 080742
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
341 AM EDT THU MAY 08 2025
VALID 12Z THU MAY 08 2025 - 12Z SAT MAY 10 2025
...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO END THE WORK WEEK ACROSS MUCH
OF THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S....
...THREAT FOR SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING THURSDAY FOR PORTIONS OF
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTH TEXAS WITH A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
...CONDITIONS REMAIN BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN U.S. WHILE MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE CONDITIONS EXPAND ACROSS
THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND WESTERN U.S....
A BROAD AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY
(THURSDAY) AHEAD OF CONSOLIDATING UPPER-LEVEL WAVES AND AN
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/SOUTHEAST AND WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF
COAST INTO SOUTHERN AND WESTERN TEXAS. MOIST GULF RETURN FLOW
FOLLOWING THE DISSIPATION OF A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT
WILL PROVIDE THE FUEL FOR MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING. A LOCALLY HIGHER THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING EXISTS ACROSS EASTERN PA, NORTHWESTERN NJ, AND SOUTHERN
NY, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE POCONOS AND CATSKILLS. STORMS WILL
HAVE A TENDENCY TO MOVE PARALLEL TO THE FRONT LEADING TO HIGHER
RAIN TOTALS OVER ALREADY SATURATED SOILS, AND A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2/4) IN EFFECT. HIGHER MOISTURE IN AN
AIRMASS UNDISTURBED BY THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION OVER SOUTH
TEXAS WILL ALSO LEAD TO WIDESPREAD STORMS WITH A LOCALLY HIGHER
THREAT FOR HEAVIER DOWNPOURS AND SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, WITH A
SLIGHT RISK IN EFFECT HERE AS WELL. IN ADDITION, A COUPLE AREAS OF
SEVERE WEATHER ARE EXPECTED. FIRST, LOCALLY STRONGER WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH ONE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL WAVES AND SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
LEAD TO A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FROM THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY EAST THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS INTRODUCED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER
(LEVEL 2/5) MAINLY FOR THE THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SECOND, AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/SOUTH TEXAS WILL BRING THE THREAT FOR SOME
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS HERE AS WELL, WITH ANOTHER SLIGHT RISK IN
PLACE FOR ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EASTWARD INTO FRIDAY, WITH PRECIPITATION
PROGRESSIVELY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY/SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC SOUTHWEST THROUGH TEXAS, WHILE STORMS
CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC/NEW
ENGLAND AND THE SOUTHEAST. MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
AGAIN EXPECTED WITH SOME ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE,
PARTICULARLY ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ALONG THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST.
ELSEWHERE, LINGERING MOISTURE ALONG THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES
AND HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO SOME SCATTERED STORMS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM PASSING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY TO
THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MUCH OF THE MIDWEST, PLAINS, AND GREAT
BASIN/WEST COAST WILL BE DRY. THE CONSOLIDATING UPPER-TROUGH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN/SOUTHERN U.S. WHILE A RIDGE BUILDS OVER
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN U.S. WILL LEAD TO SOME SIGNIFICANT VARIATIONS
IN TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MUCH OF THE GREAT
LAKES/NORTHEAST SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE OHIO/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL SEE BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS
UNDER THE UPPER-TROUGHING. HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S WILL BE COMMON
FOR MORE NORTHERN LOCATIONS WITH 60S AND 70S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY
SOUTHWARDS. CONDITIONS ALONG THE EAST COAST WILL BE A BIT CLOSER
TO AVERAGE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH HIGHS IN THE
60S AND 70S FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND 70S AND 80S INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. IN CONTRAST, WELL ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST AND
INTERIOR WEST/WEST COAST. FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY IN THE 70S
AND 80S WITH 90S IN THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA VALLEYS AND LOW 100S
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
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